How many straight weeks will 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' be #1
Leader sits at 84% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 60%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
More than 1 weeks
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
60¢
More than 2 weeks
Spread
24pp
contested
24h volume
$68
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 26, 2026
231 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many straight weeks will 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' be #1
How many straight weeks will 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' be #1?: More than 2 weeks
KXTOPALBUMRECORDOR-YSPSFAGSIL-2
How many straight weeks will 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' be #1?: More than 6 weeks
KXTOPALBUMRECORDOR-YSPSFAGSIL-6
How many straight weeks will 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' be #1?: More than 5 weeks
KXTOPALBUMRECORDOR-YSPSFAGSIL-5
How many straight weeks will 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' be #1?: More than 4 weeks
KXTOPALBUMRECORDOR-YSPSFAGSIL-4
How many straight weeks will 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' be #1?: More than 3 weeks
KXTOPALBUMRECORDOR-YSPSFAGSIL-3
How many straight weeks will 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' be #1?: More than 1 weeks
KXTOPALBUMRECORDOR-YSPSFAGSIL-1
Analysis
This contract measures how many consecutive weeks Olivia Rodrigo's song 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' will hold the #1 position on the Billboard Hot 100 chart. The 82% probability on the leading contract suggests traders expect a relatively sustained run at the top. The song's current chart momentum and streaming performance are primary drivers—tracks typically spend longer at #1 when they maintain strong initial demand across platforms. The main uncertainty centers on competition from new releases and whether listener engagement sustains beyond the initial weeks. The critical resolution point will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 updates as new chart data releases each Tuesday, which will definitively establish whether the song maintains or loses its #1 ranking in consecutive weeks.
- ›Current streaming share compared to competing tracks in the same release window
- ›Release timing of other major label singles that could displace it from the chart
- ›Historical performance data for recent debut singles reaching #1 by the same artist
- ›Radio airplay adoption rates and whether they sustain alongside streaming performance
- ›Listener engagement metrics showing whether repeat-play behavior indicates staying power or declining interest
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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