SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 6 outcomes6 contractsKalshirefreshed 3 min agoCloses Dec 26, 2026 · 231d

How many straight weeks will 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' be #1

Leader sits at 84% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 60%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

84%

More than 1 weeks

runner-up 60¢leader 84¢

Outcomes

6

winner-take-all

Runner-up

60¢

More than 2 weeks

Spread

24pp

contested

24h volume

$68

thin orderbook

Closes

Dec 26, 2026

231 days

Venue

Kalshi

6 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayMore than 1 weeks: 82% (12 days, 11 points)More than 1 weeks: 82% on 2026-05-07More than 2 weeks: 60% (12 days, 3 points)More than 2 weeks: 60% on 2026-04-28More than 3 weeks: 41% (12 days, 3 points)More than 3 weeks: 41% on 2026-04-28
More than 1 weeks82¢More than 2 weeks60¢More than 3 weeks41¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 12d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This contract measures how many consecutive weeks Olivia Rodrigo's song 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' will hold the #1 position on the Billboard Hot 100 chart. The 82% probability on the leading contract suggests traders expect a relatively sustained run at the top. The song's current chart momentum and streaming performance are primary drivers—tracks typically spend longer at #1 when they maintain strong initial demand across platforms. The main uncertainty centers on competition from new releases and whether listener engagement sustains beyond the initial weeks. The critical resolution point will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 updates as new chart data releases each Tuesday, which will definitively establish whether the song maintains or loses its #1 ranking in consecutive weeks.

  • Current streaming share compared to competing tracks in the same release window
  • Release timing of other major label singles that could displace it from the chart
  • Historical performance data for recent debut singles reaching #1 by the same artist
  • Radio airplay adoption rates and whether they sustain alongside streaming performance
  • Listener engagement metrics showing whether repeat-play behavior indicates staying power or declining interest

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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