Will Toast Inc. report Above 207 thousand total locations in 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This measures whether Toast Inc., a restaurant software company, will operate or franchise above 207,000 locations by year-end 2026. The 86% probability reflects market confidence in reaching 192,000 locations, but drops sharply for higher thresholds—only 6% odds Toast exceeds 207,000. The market is pricing in steady but constrained growth. Upside movement would depend on accelerated franchise expansion, better-than-expected customer retention, or acquisition-driven scaling. Downside pressure comes from market saturation, integration challenges, or reduced customer demand for Toast's platform. The key uncertainty resolves when Toast reports 2026 year-end location figures, typically in early 2027 earnings reports. Current trading volume concentrates on 195-198k thresholds, suggesting most market participants expect growth in the 192-210k range but view significant upside as unlikely this year.

• ›Toast's historical location growth rate and franchise velocity through mid-2026 determines feasibility of 207k target; slower adoption would make 207k increasingly improbable
• ›Customer churn and net new customer acquisition in Toast's core restaurant segments directly affect location count; competitive pressures or product dissatisfaction could constrain growth
• ›Material acquisitions or franchise partnership announcements would be immediate catalysts affecting probability upward; absence of major deals tilts market lower
• ›Market saturation in Toast's primary verticals and the company's capital allocation priorities influence expansion aggressiveness
• ›Toast's 2026 year-end earnings report and audited location count disclosure will fully resolve the contract; timing expected early 2027

Recently closed in general

• Will Janet Mills endorse Graham Platner in the Maine Senate race before May 15, 2026last 3% · 1d
• Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 13, 2026last 84% · 2d
• Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 13, 2026last 97% · 2d
• Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 13, 2026last 92% · 2d
• Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.44% on Jul 13, 2026last 90% · 2d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds