Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 13, 2026
Leader sits at 92% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 92%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
4.15% or above
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
92¢
4.2% or above
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$927
thin orderbook
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.34% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.35% or above
KXUST5AD-26JUL13-T4.34
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.3% or above
KXUST5AD-26JUL13-T4.29
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.25% or above
KXUST5AD-26JUL13-T4.24
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.14% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.15% or above
KXUST5AD-26JUL13-T4.14
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.19% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.2% or above
KXUST5AD-26JUL13-T4.19
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.44% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.45% or above
KXUST5AD-26JUL13-T4.44
Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.39% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.4% or above
KXUST5AD-26JUL13-T4.39
Analysis
Markets are pricing an 88% chance that the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield closes at 4.25% or higher on July 13, 2026. This reflects expectations about inflation data, Federal Reserve policy signals, and near-term bond market dynamics. The high probability suggests traders believe yields will remain elevated above that threshold. Key drivers include recent inflation reports, Fed communications about interest rate policy, and broader economic growth expectations. The most immediate catalyst would be any new economic data released between now and market close on July 13. The contract structure shows progressively lower probabilities for higher yield levels—only 17% chance of exceeding 4.34%—indicating consensus that yields will stay in a relatively narrow range rather than spike significantly higher.
- ›Current 5Y yield level relative to 4.24% threshold and recent intraday trading range
- ›Inflation expectations and any CPI or PCE data scheduled for release before market close on July 13
- ›Federal Reserve communications, rate guidance, or policy signals affecting near-term rate expectations
- ›Flight-to-safety demand versus risk appetite in equity markets, which typically inverse yields
- ›Technical support/resistance levels and month-end bond portfolio positioning patterns
What moved the line
- Jul 114.25% or above↑29pp60→89¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 124.15% or above↑27pp67→94¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 114.35% or above↓25pp40→15¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 124.45% or above↓22pp25→3¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 124.25% or above↓19pp89→70¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in fed rate
- Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.44% on Jul 13, 2026last 90% · 0d
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.99% on Jul 13, 2026last 84% · 0d
- Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 13, 2026last 84% · 0d
- Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 13, 2026last 97% · 0d
- What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?last 53% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in fed rate.
In fed rate
Related reading
Fed On Hold: 78¢ Probability of No Rate Move at July Meeting
Fed July meeting market (20¢ hike, 78¢ hold) shows overwhelming consensus for no move. Backing this, CPI YoY above 3.6% trades at 96¢, recession probability is just 10¢, and the year-end rate cut count of 0 trades at 76¢. The market is firmly in 'higher for longer' territory.
Fed Rate Decision: Pause Priced In, Tail Risk on Cuts
The July FOMC meeting is expected to result in a 0bps hike (85¢). However, a surprise 25bps cut is priced at just 1¢, attracting speculative volume. CPI and unemployment data releases will be key to any repricing.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.