Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.44% on Jul 13, 2026
Leader sits at 90% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 34%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
4.5% or above
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
34¢
4.55% or above
Spread
56pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$298
thin orderbook
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.49% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.5% or above
KXUST10AD-26JUL13-T4.49
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.54% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.55% or above
KXUST10AD-26JUL13-T4.54
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.59% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.6% or above
KXUST10AD-26JUL13-T4.59
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.64% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.65% or above
KXUST10AD-26JUL13-T4.64
Analysis
This probability reflects traders' assessment that the 10-year Treasury yield will exceed 4.44% on July 13, 2026—just two days away. The 97% price suggests markets view this outcome as highly likely, with implied volatility suggesting minimal expected movement from current levels. The main drivers are inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy signals, and recent economic data that influence bond yields. The outcome will be determined by the Treasury yield's closing level on July 13, with any significant economic announcements or Fed communications between now and then potentially affecting the rate. The contract structure shows traders see declining probability for higher yield thresholds (4.54%, 4.59%, 4.64%), indicating limited appetite for substantial upside movement despite the near-certain baseline outcome.
- ›10Y Treasury yield must close above 4.44% on July 13, 2026; current pricing implies minimal expected depreciation or appreciation over 2 days
- ›Market volume is concentrated in the 4.45%+ contract (97¢) with essentially zero 24h volume, suggesting limited recent trading activity and potential pricing staleness
- ›The contract ladder shows stepwise probability decline (96% at 4.50%, 60% at 4.55%, 41% at 4.60%), indicating asymmetric downside risk rather than upside
- ›Economic data releases scheduled between July 11-13 (if any) or unexpected Fed communications could trigger yield volatility
- ›Current 2-day timeframe minimizes time-decay effects but maximizes sensitivity to intraday Treasury market movements and corporate earnings announcements
What moved the line
- Jul 124.6% or above↓18pp42→24¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 114.6% or above↑17pp25→42¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 124.55% or above↓12pp69→57¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 114.65% or above↓7pp11→4¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 124.5% or above↓6pp80→74¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in fed rate
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 13, 2026last 92% · 0d
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.99% on Jul 13, 2026last 84% · 0d
- Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 13, 2026last 84% · 0d
- Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 13, 2026last 97% · 0d
- What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?last 53% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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