Will Kumar Ferguson be a Groomsman for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 62% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
62%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$186
5 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
1286 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jason Kelce be a Groomsman for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift
Cluster 2
Will Austin Swift be a Groomsman for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift
Cluster 3
Will Kumar Ferguson be a Groomsman for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift
Cluster 4
Will Aric Jones be a Groomsman for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift
Cluster 5
Will Patrick Mahomes be a Groomsman for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift
Analysis
This market estimates a 76% chance that Kumar Ferguson will be selected as a groomsman if Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift marry. The high probability reflects widespread assumptions about their relationship trajectory and Ferguson's likely place in Kelce's close circle, though it remains contingent on the couple actually getting engaged and married. Key drivers include whether their relationship reaches that stage and whether Ferguson maintains his current position within Kelce's inner social circle. The outcome becomes determinable only if and when a wedding occurs, meaning the resolution timeline remains uncertain. Market participants are pricing in both the relationship progressing to marriage and Ferguson's inclusion in the wedding party as more likely than not.
- ›Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift's relationship status and trajectory toward marriage
- ›Kumar Ferguson's documented proximity to Travis Kelce and current standing in his social circle
- ›Whether a wedding between Kelce and Swift actually occurs and reaches the planning stage
- ›Historical patterns of groomsman selection in high-profile athlete weddings and typical party sizes
- ›Any public statements or social media indicators about their relationship timeline or marriage intentions
What moved the line
- Jun 19Austin Swift↑47pp20→67¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Patrick Mahomes↑19pp35→54¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Patrick Mahomes↑13pp56→69¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Patrick Mahomes↓13pp69→56¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Aric Jones↑6pp53→59¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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