Will President Trump issue any executive action on declassifying or releasing records related to unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) or UFOs before Jul 1, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
3%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$593
1 contracts
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will President Trump issue any executive action on declassifying or releasing records related to unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) or UFOs before Aug 1, 2026
Analysis
This probability indicates traders assess roughly a 26% chance that President Trump will issue an executive action on UAP/UFO declassification or record releases by August 1, 2026—less likely than not, but a meaningful tail scenario. The relatively low probability reflects Trump's competing priorities and the lack of explicit recent public commitments on this specific issue, despite his stated interest in government transparency. The July 1 contract trades slightly lower at 20%, suggesting incrementally lower odds for the tighter deadline. Key catalysts include formal Freedom of Information Act requests, congressional UAP hearing testimony, or statements from Trump or his administration that signal imminent action. Traders would monitor whether UAP remains a prominent policy focus versus receding amid other administration priorities.
- ›Trump's prior public statements on UAP/UFO transparency and whether recent comments indicate active policy development
- ›Volume and intensity of congressional UAP legislative efforts—House or Senate bills that might prompt executive response
- ›Any public commitments Trump makes in May-June 2026 specifically tying executive action timing to the July-August window
- ›Historical pace of Trump executive actions in his first 100+ days of office; whether declassification orders have appeared in early 2026
- ›Statements from key officials (Defense Secretary, National Security Advisor, DNI) about UAP transparency timelines
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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