Will Donald Trump meet in person the Supreme Leader of Iran before Aug 1, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
3%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4
1 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
86 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump meet in person the Supreme Leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027
Analysis
This market measures the likelihood that Donald Trump and Iran's Supreme Leader meet face-to-face before August 1, 2026. The 3% probability reflects the significant diplomatic barriers between the U.S. and Iran, combined with the short timeframe remaining. For this meeting to occur, substantial geopolitical shifts would need to happen: either a major de-escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions, a dramatic breakthrough in nuclear negotiations, or an unexpected diplomatic initiative. The current probability is driven by historical precedent—no sitting U.S. president has met Iran's Supreme Leader in decades—and the absence of announced diplomatic talks. Resolution depends on whether either government signals willingness to engage at the highest level before the August deadline, though no scheduled meeting or formal negotiation framework currently exists that would indicate such a summit is imminent.
- ›No scheduled or announced in-person meetings between Trump and Iran's Supreme Leader have been reported as of late September 2026
- ›Historical precedent shows extremely limited direct presidential-level meetings between U.S. and Iranian leadership over the past 40+ years
- ›A formal diplomatic initiative, public statement of intent, or confirmed meeting announcement would typically precede any actual summit by weeks or months
- ›Geopolitical conditions (sanctions, regional conflicts, nuclear program status) would need to shift substantially to enable credible negotiation talks
- ›The August 1, 2026 deadline allows only 10 months for diplomatic breakthrough, negotiation, and logistical planning for a presidential-level meeting
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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