Will Donald Trump meet in person the Supreme Leader of Iran before Aug 1, 2026
Leader sits at 8% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2027
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
Before Sep 1, 2026
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
190 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump meet in person the Supreme Leader of Iran before
Will Donald Trump meet in person the Supreme Leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXTRUMPSUPREMELEADER-27JAN01-JAN01
Will Donald Trump meet in person the Supreme Leader of Iran before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXTRUMPSUPREMELEADER-27JAN01-SEP01
Analysis
This market estimates a 12% chance that Donald Trump will meet in person with Iran's Supreme Leader before January 1, 2027, with only a 4% probability such a meeting occurs by August 1, 2026. The low probability reflects the historical rarity of direct presidential-to-Supreme Leader engagement and current geopolitical tensions. The main drivers are diplomatic signals from either government and any scheduled international summits or negotiations. The probability would likely increase substantially if either party publicly announced talks or if a credible intermediary reported active negotiations. Near-term resolution depends on whether any official meeting is scheduled and held before the August 1 date, though the January 2027 contract allows for a longer diplomatic window.
- ›No direct Trump-Supreme Leader meeting has occurred since 2017; current U.S.-Iran relations remain adversarial with active sanctions
- ›The August 1, 2026 deadline is 46 days away with no announced plans for such a meeting as of the current date
- ›The 12% January 2027 contract suggests markets assign only 8% additional probability to a meeting occurring in the five-month September-December 2026 window
- ›Diplomatic breakthroughs typically involve weeks or months of preliminary talks; a surprise unannounced meeting would be unprecedented in modern U.S.-Iran relations
- ›Calendar timing matters: major diplomatic meetings typically require advance scheduling and preparation, making spontaneous encounters highly unlikely
What moved the line
- Jun 22Before Sep 1, 2026↓5pp10→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Before Jan 1, 2027↑4pp10→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Before Jan 1, 2027↓3pp12→9¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Before Jan 1, 2027↑3pp9→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Before Sep 1, 2026↑3pp6→9¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (8% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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