Will the full text of the June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding be released in the world before Jun 17, 2026
Leader sits at 97% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 96%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jun 20, 2026
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
96¢
Before Jun 19, 2026
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$195K
liquid
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the full text of the June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding be released in the world before Jun
Will the full text of the June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding be released in the world before Jun 19, 2026?: Before Jun 19, 2026
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
Will the full text of the June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding be released in the world before Jun 20, 2026?: Before Jun 20, 2026
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
Analysis
Markets assign an 81% probability that the full text of a US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in June 2026 will be publicly released by July 1, 2026. The probability reflects expectations that official statements will include substantial details within two weeks of signing, though markets price only a 25% chance of release by tomorrow (June 17). The timing contracts suggest uncertainty about whether immediate full disclosure occurs versus a phased release. Key drivers include standard diplomatic disclosure practices, potential congressional pressure for transparency, and whether confidential negotiation details remain classified. The June 19-20 window shows elevated trading volume, indicating market participants view those dates as realistic disclosure targets. Resolution depends on whether governments publish complete memorandum text versus summaries, and whether classified sections delay full public access.
- ›Current contract pricing shows 76% probability of release by June 20, but only 35% by June 19, indicating concentrated expected disclosure timing
- ›Trading volume peaks at the June 20 contract ($1,552 in 24h volume) relative to other timeframes, suggesting this is viewed as most probable release window
- ›Full-text release faces potential delays if portions require security review or remain subject to confidentiality agreements between nations
- ›Historical precedent for US-Iran agreements shows mixed patterns: some details released immediately while classified annexes remain restricted for years
- ›The narrow timeframe between signing (June 2026) and July 1 deadline compresses the typical executive review and approval timeline for public disclosure
What moved the line
- Jun 18Before Jun 19, 2026↑31pp46→77¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
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Related reading
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Iran Uranium Enrichment Deal Odds Surge 20 Points
The probability that Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by June 30 has jumped from 40¢ to 60¢, the largest single-day move in this contract. Trading volume is very high, suggesting a potential leak, official statement, or significant progress in talks.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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