Will ServiceTitan, Inc. report Above $28.5 billion gross transaction volume in Q2 2027
Leader sits at 61% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 41%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $24.7 billion
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
41¢
Above $25.1 billion
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Apr 2, 2027
196 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will ServiceTitan, Inc. report Above $2
Will ServiceTitan, Inc. report Above $24.7 billion gross transaction volume in Q3 2027?: Above $24.7 billion
KXTTAN-26DECGTV-24700000000
Will ServiceTitan, Inc. report Above $25.1 billion gross transaction volume in Q3 2027?: Above $25.1 billion
KXTTAN-26DECGTV-25100000000
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that ServiceTitan will process at least $28.5 billion in gross transaction volume during Q2 2027—roughly nine months from now. The 22% implied probability suggests traders view this upper threshold as achievable but not highly likely. Current pricing across the contract ladder ($0.90 for $26.5B down to $0.22 for $28.5B) indicates confidence in baseline growth but uncertainty about reaching the highest bound. Resolution will depend on ServiceTitan's actual reported GTV for the second quarter of 2027, which the company will disclose in earnings. Key drivers include the company's field-service platform adoption rate, pricing power, and ability to retain and expand its customer base through 2026 and into 2027. Macroeconomic conditions affecting home services and trades spending will also influence outcome probabilities.
- ›ServiceTitan's historical GTV growth rate and trajectory through 2024-2026 establishes a baseline growth expectation needed to reach $28.5B by Q2 2027
- ›The contract ladder structure reveals declining conviction at higher thresholds: $26.5B attracts 90¢ pricing while $28.5B attracts only 22¢, indicating incremental growth skepticism above ~$27B
- ›Q2 2027 earnings release date and actual reported GTV figure will directly settle the contract, with no ambiguity in the underlying metric
- ›Customer acquisition, retention, and average transaction value trends through late 2026 will be the primary observable signals affecting near-term probability movement
- ›Broader economic conditions in home services and discretionary trades spending between now and Q2 2027 act as an external variable independent of company execution
What moved the line
- Sep 17Above $25.1 billion↓32pp47→15¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above $24.7 billion↓27pp51→24¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (61% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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