Which shows will be cancelled this year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
20%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$24
6 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 10% of their title tokens — “Which shows will be cancelled this year” vs “Will Jimmy Kimmel Live! be canceled”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Which shows will be cancelled this year
Which shows will be cancelled this year?: The View
KXTVSHOWSCANCELLED-27-VIE
Which shows will be cancelled this year?: The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon
KXTVSHOWSCANCELLED-27-TON
Which shows will be cancelled this year?: Late Night With Seth Meyers
KXTVSHOWSCANCELLED-27-LAT
Which shows will be cancelled this year?: The Daily Show
KXTVSHOWSCANCELLED-27-DAI
Which shows will be cancelled this year?: South Park
KXTVSHOWSCANCELLED-27-SOU
Cluster 2
Will Jimmy Kimmel Live! be canceled
Will Jimmy Kimmel Live! be canceled?: Jimmy Kimmel Live!
KXTVSHOWSCANCELLED-27-JIM
Analysis
The 24% probability reflects market expectations that "Late Night with Seth Meyers" will be cancelled during 2026, based on current contract pricing across Kalshi. This represents a roughly one-in-four chance according to traders. The probability is driven primarily by NBC's programming decisions and the show's viewership metrics relative to network priorities. Secondary factors include broader late-night industry consolidation and advertiser demand for the time slot. The main catalyst for resolution will be NBC's official renewal or cancellation announcement, typically occurring during upfront season (May-June) when networks finalize fall schedules. Current trading volume is light ($10 in 24-hour volume), suggesting limited consensus conviction among traders monitoring this outcome.
- ›NBC's May-June 2026 upfront presentation will likely include explicit renewal or cancellation decisions for fall programming
- ›Recent late-night ratings trends and advertiser demand for the 11:35pm slot will influence network cost-benefit analysis
- ›Seth Meyers' contract renewal status and negotiation outcomes directly determine whether the show can continue
- ›Competitive pressure from other networks' late-night offerings and streaming alternatives affects traditional broadcast renewals
- ›Historical precedent shows NBC has cancelled late-night shows before (e.g., "Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon" is not cancelled, but the show type has been discontinued at other networks)
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.