Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 178 million passengers flown in 2026
Leader sits at 93% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 93%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 178 million
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
93¢
Above 180 million
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$480
thin orderbook
Closes
Mar 31, 2028
587 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 1
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 186 million passengers flown in 2026?: Above 186 million
KXUALA-28JANPAX-186000000
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 190 million passengers flown in 2026?: Above 190 million
KXUALA-28JANPAX-190000000
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 188 million passengers flown in 2026?: Above 188 million
KXUALA-28JANPAX-188000000
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 184 million passengers flown in 2026?: Above 184 million
KXUALA-28JANPAX-184000000
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 182 million passengers flown in 2026?: Above 182 million
KXUALA-28JANPAX-182000000
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 180 million passengers flown in 2026?: Above 180 million
KXUALA-28JANPAX-180000000
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 178 million passengers flown in 2026?: Above 178 million
KXUALA-28JANPAX-178000000
Analysis
Markets are pricing an 89% chance that United Airlines will carry more than 178 million passengers in 2026. This threshold sits slightly below United's 2019 peak of 180 million passengers, suggesting traders expect the airline to recover to near pre-pandemic levels by year-end. The high probability reflects post-pandemic demand recovery and United's operational capacity, though airlines remain sensitive to fuel prices, economic recession, and capacity adjustments. The contract probability declines as thresholds rise—87% for 180 million, 82% for 182 million—indicating declining confidence in stronger-than-baseline performance. Resolution depends on United's official 2026 passenger report, typically published in January or February 2027 alongside annual earnings.
- ›United carried 180 million passengers in 2019; 178 million represents 99% of that pre-pandemic peak
- ›Current year-to-date passenger trends and load factors through Q2 2026 determine achievability
- ›Fuel price environment, macroeconomic growth, and domestic/international demand mix affect airline capacity decisions
- ›Probability gradient (89% at 178M, 55% at 186M) suggests market uncertainty above 180 million passengers
- ›Actual resolution waits for United's official 2026 annual passenger report in early 2027
What moved the line
- Aug 17Above 182 million↑7pp84→91¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Above 182 million↓7pp91→84¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Above 182 million↑7pp83→90¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Above 184 million↓6pp82→76¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Above 184 million↑6pp75→81¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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