Aston Villa at Nottingham
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 41% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
41%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
8 contracts
Closes
May 21, 2026
13 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 29% of their title tokens — “Nottingham at Aston Villa: Totals: Over” vs “Braga at Freiburg: Totals: Over”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Nottingham at Aston Villa: Totals: Over
Nottingham at Aston Villa: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXUELTOTAL-26MAY07AVLNFO-2
Nottingham at Aston Villa: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
KXUELTOTAL-26MAY07AVLNFO-3
Nottingham at Aston Villa: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXUELTOTAL-26MAY07AVLNFO-4
Nottingham at Aston Villa: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXUELTOTAL-26MAY07AVLNFO-1
Cluster 2
Braga at Freiburg: Totals: Over
Braga at Freiburg: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXUELTOTAL-26MAY07SCFBRA-2
Braga at Freiburg: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXUELTOTAL-26MAY07SCFBRA-1
Braga at Freiburg: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXUELTOTAL-26MAY07SCFBRA-4
Braga at Freiburg: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
KXUELTOTAL-26MAY07SCFBRA-3
What moved the line
- May 2Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored↑20pp3→23¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored↑13pp12→25¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored↑9pp4→13¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored↑9pp2→11¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored↑7pp68→75¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 20 h ago.