Aston Villa at Nottingham
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
10 contracts
Closes
Jun 3, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will over 1.5 goals be scored
Will over 1.5 goals be scored?: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXUELTOTAL-26JUL16ALUSHF-2
Will over 1.5 goals be scored?: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXUELTOTAL-26JUL16VESQAR-2
Will over 1.5 goals be scored?: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXUELTOTAL-26JUL16UCLDYK-2
Will over 1.5 goals be scored?: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXUELTOTAL-26JUL16FTCVOJ-2
Will over 1.5 goals be scored?: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXUELTOTAL-26JUL16DERCSK-2
Cluster 2
Will over 2.5 goals be scored
Will over 2.5 goals be scored?: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXUELTOTAL-26JUL16ALUSHF-3
Will over 2.5 goals be scored?: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXUELTOTAL-26JUL16VESQAR-3
Will over 2.5 goals be scored?: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXUELTOTAL-26JUL16UCLDYK-3
Will over 2.5 goals be scored?: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXUELTOTAL-26JUL16FTCVOJ-3
Will over 2.5 goals be scored?: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXUELTOTAL-26JUL16DERCSK-3
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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