Movsar Evloev to be Featherweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability indicates a 5% chance that Movsar Evloev holds the UFC Featherweight title by December 31, 2027. Evloev is currently ranked but not the champion, so this requires him to win a title shot and then defeat the incumbent or vacant-title holder within roughly 16 months. The low probability reflects that title paths in MMA typically take multiple wins, timing must align with championship schedules, and the featherweight division contains multiple capable contenders. The primary driver of this probability would be Evloev's win-loss record over the next year and his positioning in official UFC rankings, which determine title-shot eligibility. The biggest catalyst for resolution will be any title fights scheduled in the featherweight division through late 2027, as these events determine whether the title becomes available and who holds it at year-end.

• ›Evloev's current ranking status and number of ranked wins required to reach a title shot in the featherweight division
• ›The number and caliber of other featherweight contenders competing for title opportunities within the 16-month timeframe
• ›Scheduled UFC Featherweight title bouts and the current champion's health status and fight frequency
• ›Evloev's recent performance trajectory and injury history over the past 12 months
• ›Whether the featherweight title remains active or undergoes championship transitions that affect title-holder status by December 31, 2027

What moved the line

• Sep 18Islam Makhachev↑47pp3→50¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 19Paddy Pimblett↓8pp10→2¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 18Paddy Pimblett↑6pp4→10¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 18Arman Tsarukyan↑3pp2→5¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds