US economic state at the end of 2026
Leader sits at 46% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 36%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
36¢
Soft Landing (Unemployment <
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 31, 2027
226 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
US economic state at the end of 2026
US economic state at the end of 2026?: Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
0x4e54fc…98f6
US economic state at the end of 2026?: Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
0x9b1804…9774
US economic state at the end of 2026?: Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
0x53ba15…cae0
US economic state at the end of 2026?: Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
0x50e3ee…71d8
Analysis
Markets are pricing a 42% chance that the U.S. economy will show overheating conditions by year-end 2026, defined as unemployment below 5.0% and inflation at or above 3.5%. This outcome reflects traders' assessment that despite recent cooling efforts, labor markets remain tight and price pressures persist. The current probability sits above the soft-landing scenario (25%) but competes with stagflation and slack-economy outcomes. The main factors driving this level are the trajectory of Federal Reserve policy decisions through 2026 and incoming inflation data releases, which will signal whether current economic momentum can be sustained without reigniting price growth. The monthly consumer price index and employment reports through November 2026 will be critical in determining whether this outcome materializes, with particular attention to core inflation trends and wage growth relative to productivity gains.
- ›Federal funds rate path from mid-2026 onward: higher rates would reduce overheating risk, while paused or cut rates would increase it
- ›Quarterly inflation data through Q3 2026: sustained CPI readings above 3.5% core would support the overheating thesis
- ›Labor force participation and wage growth rates: strong wage gains with tight labor markets would reinforce overheating conditions
- ›Supply-side shocks or energy price movements: negative shocks could push inflation higher independent of demand-side tightness
- ›Economic growth rate in first and second quarters of 2026: sustained above-trend growth would make unemployment below 5.0% more likely
What moved the line
- Jun 18Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)↑6pp27→33¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 16Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)↑4pp30→34¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 16Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)↑4pp24→28¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 18Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)↓3pp35→32¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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