Will the price of the USDX be above 105 by Jun 30, 2026
Leader sits at 18% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 102
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
Above 103
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
5 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the price of the USDX be above 10
Analysis
Markets are pricing a 79% chance the US Dollar Index closes above 100 by June 30, 2026, but only a 3% chance it rises above 105 during that period. The steep probability cliff between these levels suggests traders expect the USDX to remain in a narrow range near current levels rather than make a sharp directional move in either direction. The probability is driven primarily by Fed policy expectations and global economic growth differentials. With about four weeks until resolution, upcoming inflation data, Fed communications, and international central bank decisions will be the main factors determining whether dollar strength persists or reverses. The current pricing reflects consensus that near-term dollar stability is likely, but a significant rally beyond 105 is viewed as unlikely without a major shift in monetary policy or economic conditions.
- ›The USDX is currently near 105; the 79% probability for 'above 100' reflects confidence the dollar stays within a historically normal range rather than weakness below parity
- ›Contract prices show extreme confidence clustering: 59¢ for above-100 versus 3¢ for above-105 indicates traders expect very little upward movement from current levels in 27 days
- ›Only $124 in 24-hour volume on the above-105 contract suggests limited disagreement—most market participants see a sharp rally as improbable
- ›Fed rate expectations and US Treasury yield differentials relative to other G10 currencies are the primary drivers of dollar direction over this short timeframe
- ›Resolution depends on near-term data: CPI reports, PCE inflation readings, and any Fed guidance adjustments before June 30 are the most likely catalysts for significant probability shifts
What moved the line
- Jun 24Above 102↑31pp8→39¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Above 102↑13pp39→52¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Above 102↑5pp5→10¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Above 102↑4pp10→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Above 102↓4pp14→10¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (18% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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