Will USD/MXN be above 19 by month-end
Leader sits at 7% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
17.75 or above
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
18 or above
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$6
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
10 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will USD/MXN be above 1
Analysis
Markets are pricing a 73% chance that USD/MXN closes June 2026 above 17.75, with only a 5% probability it reaches 19. The Mexican peso's strength or weakness against the dollar depends primarily on relative interest-rate differentials between the Federal Reserve and Banco de México, trade dynamics, and capital flows responding to economic data from both countries. The gap between the 17.75 level (favored) and 19 level (low probability) suggests traders expect peso stability rather than sharp dollar appreciation. Key drivers include U.S. inflation reports that could influence Fed policy, Mexican employment and inflation data affecting central bank expectations, and any shifts in trade or geopolitical risk premiums. The most significant uncertainty resolves through late-month economic releases and any surprise policy signals from either central bank.
- ›Relative interest rate expectations: higher U.S. rates favor dollar strength, while elevated Mexican rates support the peso
- ›Trade flows and tariff environment: changes to U.S.-Mexico trade policy directly affect currency demand
- ›Capital flow direction: portfolio rebalancing between U.S. and Mexican assets based on perceived risk and returns
- ›Economic data releases: June inflation, employment, and manufacturing data from both countries will influence expectations
- ›Central bank communication: policy signals from the Fed or Banco de México about future rate paths
What moved the line
- Jun 1517.75 or above↓16pp19→3¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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