Who will earn the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

The 45% probability indicates that markets currently assess less than even odds that at least one person will receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2026. This prediction reflects uncertainty about whether the administration will hold an awards ceremony, who might be selected if one occurs, and whether any announced recipient will actually receive the medal before year-end. The current price sits between the leading outcome (45%) and the runner-up (35%), suggesting meaningful disagreement about the likelihood. Key drivers include the timing of any planned ceremony—typically held in spring or fall—and whether announced recipients actually attend and receive medals in the calendar year. The main catalyst would be an official announcement from the White House about a 2026 ceremony date and attendee list, which would substantially reduce uncertainty around both the probability of an event occurring and which specific individuals might qualify.

• ›Presidential Medal of Freedom ceremonies are discretionary and don't occur on a fixed schedule; the administration must announce and execute one in 2026 for this to resolve affirmatively
• ›Historical practice shows recipients are typically announced weeks or months before the ceremony, creating a clear market signal before year-end
• ›The winner-take-all structure with 9 bound contracts suggests traders are pricing both the probability of any ceremony occurring and uncertainty about which specific recipients might be selected
• ›Trading volume is moderate ($6K-$12K on related contracts), indicating this is not a high-conviction market with deep liquidity
• ›An official White House announcement of a 2026 ceremony and recipient list would be the primary resolution trigger, likely occurring in a formal statement or press briefing

What moved the line

• May 7Reid Wiseman↑4pp45→49¢ · Kalshi
• May 7Bill Belichick↓3pp9→6¢ · Kalshi
• May 7Dan Scavino↓3pp9→6¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds