Will 10Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.45%
Leader sits at 4% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 4.50%
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
Above 4.45%
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$16
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
5 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will 10Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4
Analysis
Markets are pricing a 59% chance that the 10-year US Treasury yield closes June 2026 above 4.45%, implying traders expect moderately elevated rates. The probability reflects expectations around Federal Reserve policy trajectories, inflation data, and broader economic growth forecasts. Movements in this contract would likely follow monthly employment reports, inflation readings (CPI/PPI), and any Fed communications about interest rate plans. The June jobs report and PCE inflation data—due mid-month—typically drive significant rate repricing. If economic data signals persistent inflation or Fed hawkishness, yields could move higher; conversely, signs of cooling growth or moderating prices could push yields lower and reduce the probability. The contract settles on the last trading day of June based on month-end yields, so late-month economic data and Fed speakers could shift positioning into month-end.
- ›Monthly CPI and PCE inflation reports (due mid-June) will directly influence expectations for Fed rate decisions and long-term inflation expectations, which drive 10Y yields
- ›Employment data (June jobs report) indicating labor-market strength or weakness affects growth expectations and Fed policy outlook
- ›Current spread between the 4.45% and 4.70% contracts (59¢ vs 15¢) suggests traders see tail risk of significantly higher yields but expect yields more likely to stay below 4.70%
- ›Any unscheduled Fed communications or geopolitical events in the final week of June could cause rapid repricing as the settlement date approaches
- ›The 4.50% contract at parity (50¢) indicates near-even odds around that threshold, suggesting 4.45–4.50% is the market's expected trading range
What moved the line
- Jun 22Above 4.45%↑39pp2→41¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Above 4.50%↑23pp2→25¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Above 4.45%↓20pp31→11¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Above 4.50%↓16pp21→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Above 4.50%↓16pp20→4¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in fed rate
- Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?last 49% · 1d
- What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?last 16% · 2d
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)last 56% · 7d
- Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…last 37% · 7d
- Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)last 75% · 7d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (4% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In fed rate
Related reading
Fed Holds Steady: No Rate Action Expected in July
The market is fully priced for a Fed hold in July, with the 'no hike' contract at 75¢ and a 25bps hike at 24¢. The probability of no cuts by year-end is also 75%, reinforcing the 'higher for longer' narrative.
Fed: July hike priced at 23¢, 0 cuts by year-end at 78¢ as inflation persists
Fed rate markets show strong hawkish sentiment: July hike at 23¢, cut at 1¢. Year-end: 78% chance of 0 cuts, 16% for 1 cut. Gas price markets above $3.90 confirm inflation persistence, supporting the 'no easing' view.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.