Will 5Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.25%
Leader sits at 31% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 4.30%
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
Above 4.35%
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$22
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
6 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will 5Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4
Will 5Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.40%?: Above 4.40%
KXUST5-26JUN30-T4.40
Will 5Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.35%?: Above 4.35%
KXUST5-26JUN30-T4.35
Will 5Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.30%?: Above 4.30%
KXUST5-26JUN30-T4.30
Analysis
The market is pricing a strong 89% likelihood that the 5-year US Treasury yield will exceed 4.25% by June 30, 2026. This reflects current economic conditions and expectations about Federal Reserve policy, inflation, and credit demand through month-end. The high probability suggests traders believe yields have momentum upward or are already elevated relative to this threshold. Key drivers include incoming inflation data, Fed communications about interest rate policy, and economic growth signals. The contract structure shows meaningful disagreement at higher thresholds—only 50% odds above 4.30%—indicating uncertainty about whether yields will push significantly higher. Any major economic data miss or dovish Fed pivot could reduce yields below the 4.25% level, while persistent inflation or hawkish commentary could push yields higher. The narrow 28-day window limits the timeframe for resolution, focusing attention on near-term economic indicators and policy signals.
- ›Current 5-year yield level relative to 4.25% and recent trading range; the 89% probability implies yields are either already above or very close to this threshold
- ›Probability cliff between 4.25% (89%) and 4.30% (50%) suggests the market sees material resistance above 4.30%, with significant disagreement on further upside
- ›June inflation data release and any remaining Fed communications this month would be primary catalysts affecting near-term yield direction
- ›Economic growth expectations and credit conditions; weaker-than-expected data could trigger a yield decline below 4.25% despite current high probability
- ›Liquidity and positioning in Treasury markets; thin volume on higher-threshold contracts ($2-7M in 24h) suggests modest real-money conviction at present levels
What moved the line
- Jun 23Above 4.30%↑28pp2→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Above 4.30%↓22pp25→3¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Above 4.30%↑13pp5→18¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Above 4.35%↓9pp14→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Above 4.30%↑7pp18→25¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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