Will Drake perform at Rogers Centre 2026
Leader sits at 56% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 55%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Scotiabank Arena
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
55¢
Madison Square Garden
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 8, 2027
244 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Drake perform at
Will Drake perform at Madison Square Garden 2026?: Madison Square Garden
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEDRAKE-27JAN01-MSG
Will Drake perform at Wembley Stadium 2026?: Wembley Stadium
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEDRAKE-27JAN01-WEM
Will Drake perform at Soldier Field 2026?: Soldier Field
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEDRAKE-27JAN01-SOL
Will Drake perform at Mercedes-Benz Stadium 2026?: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEDRAKE-27JAN01-MER
Will Drake perform at Hard Rock Stadium 2026?: Hard Rock Stadium
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEDRAKE-27JAN01-HAR
Will Drake perform at AT&T Stadium 2026?: AT&T Stadium
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEDRAKE-27JAN01-AT
Will Drake perform at MetLife Stadium 2026?: MetLife Stadium
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEDRAKE-27JAN01-MET
Will Drake perform at SoFi Stadium 2026?: SoFi Stadium
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEDRAKE-27JAN01-SOF
Will Drake perform at Rogers Centre 2026?: Rogers Centre
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEDRAKE-27JAN01-ROG
Will Drake perform at Scotiabank Arena 2026?: Scotiabank Arena
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEDRAKE-27JAN01-SCO
Analysis
This probability reflects market confidence that Drake will perform at Toronto's Rogers Centre during 2026. The 61% likelihood is driven by Drake's historical touring patterns and strong streaming momentum—related contracts show 97% confidence he'll top US Spotify charts in May and 95% confidence his album 'Iceman' releases before June. The main uncertainty involves his touring schedule and venue availability. The biggest resolution catalyst would be an official tour announcement or Rogers Centre calendar confirmation, which typically occurs months in advance. Market participants appear to be pricing in Drake's consistent performance presence in his hometown against standard touring industry timelines.
- ›Drake's 97¢ Spotify chart contract suggests sustained commercial activity in May 2026, typical of touring announcement periods
- ›The 'Iceman' album contracts trading at 95-97¢ indicate near-certain pre-June release, which often coincides with tour promotion cycles
- ›No public Rogers Centre tour dates or Drake tour announcements currently exist, creating information vacuum that limits certainty below 75%
- ›Historical data needed: Drake's Rogers Centre performance frequency and average gap between album releases and major hometown tour dates
- ›The runner-up contract at 56% probability suggests meaningful disagreement among participants about venue-specific performance likelihood
What moved the line
- May 7Scotiabank Arena↓3pp59→56¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.