Will Bad Bunny perform at Madison Square Garden 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 28% across 15 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
28%
15 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
15 contracts
Closes
Jan 7, 2028
608 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
15 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Taylor Swift perform at Madison Square Garden 2027
Will Taylor Swift perform at Madison Square Garden 2027?: Taylor Swift
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEMSG-27DEC31-TAY
Cluster 2
Will Drake perform at Madison Square Garden 2027
Will Drake perform at Madison Square Garden 2027?: Drake
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEMSG-27DEC31-DRA
Cluster 3
Will The Weeknd perform at Madison Square Garden 2027
Will The Weeknd perform at Madison Square Garden 2027?: The Weeknd
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEMSG-27DEC31-WEE
Cluster 4
Will Bad Bunny perform at Madison Square Garden 2027
Will Bad Bunny perform at Madison Square Garden 2027?: Bad Bunny
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEMSG-27DEC31-BAD
Cluster 5
Will Kanye West (Ye) perform at Madison Square Garden 2027
Will Kanye West (Ye) perform at Madison Square Garden 2027?: Kanye West (Ye)
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEMSG-27DEC31-KAN
Cluster 6
Will Bruno Mars perform at Madison Square Garden 2027
Will Bruno Mars perform at Madison Square Garden 2027?: Bruno Mars
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEMSG-27DEC31-BRU
Cluster 7
Will Fred again.. perform at Madison Square Garden 2027
Will Fred again.. perform at Madison Square Garden 2027?: Fred again..
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEMSG-27DEC31-FRE
Cluster 8
Will Travis Scott perform at Madison Square Garden 2027
Will Travis Scott perform at Madison Square Garden 2027?: Travis Scott
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEMSG-27DEC31-TRA
Cluster 9
Will Chappell Roan perform at Madison Square Garden 2027
Will Chappell Roan perform at Madison Square Garden 2027?: Chappell Roan
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEMSG-27DEC31-CHA
Cluster 10
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at Madison Square Garden 2027
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at Madison Square Garden 2027?: Sabrina Carpenter
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEMSG-27DEC31-SAB
Cluster 11
Will Olivia Rodrigo perform at Madison Square Garden 2027
Will Olivia Rodrigo perform at Madison Square Garden 2027?: Olivia Rodrigo
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEMSG-27DEC31-OLI
Cluster 12
Will Tate McRae perform at Madison Square Garden 2027
Will Tate McRae perform at Madison Square Garden 2027?: Tate McRae
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEMSG-27DEC31-TAT
Cluster 13
Will Ice Spice perform at Madison Square Garden 2027
Will Ice Spice perform at Madison Square Garden 2027?: Ice Spice
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEMSG-27DEC31-ICE
Cluster 14
Will Central Cee perform at Madison Square Garden 2027
Will Central Cee perform at Madison Square Garden 2027?: Central Cee
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEMSG-27DEC31-CEN
Cluster 15
Will Playboi Carti perform at Madison Square Garden 2027
Will Playboi Carti perform at Madison Square Garden 2027?: Playboi Carti
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEMSG-27DEC31-PLA
Analysis
This market estimates a 28% chance that Bad Bunny will perform at Madison Square Garden during 2027. The probability reflects uncertainty about both his touring plans and venue availability over the next 18 months. Bad Bunny's touring frequency, announced concert schedules, and MSG's booking calendar over the coming year will be primary drivers. The market would shift upward if he announces a 2027 tour or confirms MSG dates, and downward if he commits to other venues or touring schedules that preclude MSG. The most direct resolution point will occur when either he announces a 2027 tour schedule or the year transitions to 2027 without confirmed MSG performances. Comparable artists like Drake (56%) and Bruno Mars (34%) show variable expectations for major venues, suggesting artist-specific factors like touring patterns and venue preferences matter significantly.
- ›Bad Bunny's historical touring frequency and pattern over 2024-2026 will indicate likelihood of 2027 activity
- ›Official tour announcements or concert bookings in late 2026 would provide concrete evidence for or against a 2027 MSG performance
- ›Madison Square Garden's booking calendar and typical scheduling patterns could constrain or enable his availability for 2027
- ›Comparison to peer artists shows comparable major performers have 34-56% probabilities, suggesting baseline uncertainty for top-tier touring acts
- ›Any public statements from Bad Bunny's management about 2027 touring plans would directly influence market expectations
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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