Will Bad Bunny perform at Madison Square Garden 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
27%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
3 contracts
Closes
Jan 7, 2028
470 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Fred again.. perform at Madison Square Garden 2027
Will Fred again.. perform at Madison Square Garden 2027?: Fred again..
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEMSG-27DEC31-FRE
Cluster 2
Will Olivia Rodrigo perform at Madison Square Garden 2027
Will Olivia Rodrigo perform at Madison Square Garden 2027?: Olivia Rodrigo
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEMSG-27DEC31-OLI
Cluster 3
Will Playboi Carti perform at Madison Square Garden 2027
Will Playboi Carti perform at Madison Square Garden 2027?: Playboi Carti
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEMSG-27DEC31-PLA
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Bad Bunny has roughly a 1-in-3 chance of performing at Madison Square Garden during 2027. Bad Bunny's contract probability (18¢) sits below comparable artists like Bruno Mars (35¢) and The Weeknd (31¢), suggesting either lower expected tour activity or greater uncertainty about MSG-specific performances. The main drivers of this estimate are Bad Bunny's touring patterns, announced 2027 dates, and MSG's scheduling capacity. Tour announcements typically occur 6-12 months before performances, making fall 2026 through early 2027 the critical window for resolving this uncertainty. Major factors include whether Bad Bunny announces a North American arena tour for 2027, whether MSG hosts competing performances that limit available dates, the artist's historical frequency at the venue, and broader industry conditions affecting concert scheduling.
- ›Bad Bunny's historical performance frequency at MSG relative to other top artists and his stated tour plans for 2027
- ›Timing and content of any official tour announcements between July 2026 and early 2027
- ›MSG's available booking dates in 2027 and competing high-profile artist commitments
- ›Bad Bunny's typical tour cycle length and interval between North American arena visits
- ›Recent industry trends affecting major artist tour scheduling and venue access
What moved the line
- Sep 17Olivia Rodrigo↑19pp15→34¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Olivia Rodrigo↓18pp34→16¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Playboi Carti↑5pp22→27¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Playboi Carti↓5pp27→22¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Fred again..↑4pp43→47¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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