Will Congress ever override Trump's veto
Leader sits at 37% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 9%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 20, 2029
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
9¢
Before 2027
Spread
28pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
846 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Congress
Analysis
This represents the likelihood that Congress will muster a two-thirds majority in both chambers to overturn a Trump veto before January 20, 2029. Veto overrides are historically rare—only about 7% of presidential vetoes are overridden—and require substantial bipartisan consensus. The current 29% probability reflects uncertainty about both the frequency and type of vetoes Trump issues and whether either party will have sufficient motivation to override them. Key drivers include the composition of Congress, the partisan salience of specific bills being vetoed, and whether any vetoes affect widely-supported legislation. The market has priced lower odds for an override before 2027 (10%) compared to the full 2029 window, suggesting traders view the probability as more likely in the latter half of a potential Trump presidency. Major catalysts would include actual vetoes of significant bipartisan bills in the coming months, which would provide concrete test cases for override likelihood.
- ›Override success requires 67 votes in Senate and 290 in House; current Congress composition affects feasibility
- ›Historical veto override rate is approximately 7%, providing baseline for how rare these outcomes are
- ›Type of legislation matters significantly—overrides more likely on widely-popular bills with genuine bipartisan support
- ›Political polarization affects willingness to cross party lines on major presidential disagreements
- ›Early vetoes in 2026-2027 would provide direct evidence; their topics and voting patterns would indicate trajectory toward 29% or elsewhere
What moved the line
- Sep 23Before 2027↓4pp6→2¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 24Before Jan 20, 2029↓3pp37→34¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (37% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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