Will John Fetterman vote for Todd Blanche
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
40%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
9 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
190 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will John Fetterman vote for Todd Blanche
Will John Fetterman vote for Todd Blanche?: John Fetterman
KXVOTEBLANCHE-27-JFET
Cluster 2
Will Rand Paul vote for Todd Blanche
Will Rand Paul vote for Todd Blanche?: Rand Paul
KXVOTEBLANCHE-27-RPAU
Cluster 3
Will Lisa Murkowski vote for Todd Blanche
Will Lisa Murkowski vote for Todd Blanche?: Lisa Murkowski
KXVOTEBLANCHE-27-LMUR
Cluster 4
Will Bill Cassidy vote for Todd Blanche
Will Bill Cassidy vote for Todd Blanche?: Bill Cassidy
KXVOTEBLANCHE-27-BCAS
Cluster 5
Will John Cornyn vote for Todd Blanche
Will John Cornyn vote for Todd Blanche?: John Cornyn
KXVOTEBLANCHE-27-JCOR
Cluster 6
Will Susan Collins vote for Todd Blanche
Will Susan Collins vote for Todd Blanche?: Susan Collins
KXVOTEBLANCHE-27-SCOL
Cluster 7
Will Thom Tillis vote for Todd Blanche
Will Thom Tillis vote for Todd Blanche?: Thom Tillis
KXVOTEBLANCHE-27-TTIL
Cluster 8
Will Mitch McConnell vote for Todd Blanche
Will Mitch McConnell vote for Todd Blanche?: Mitch McConnell
KXVOTEBLANCHE-27-MMCC
Cluster 9
Will Tommy Tuberville vote for Todd Blanche
Will Tommy Tuberville vote for Todd Blanche?: Tommy Tuberville
KXVOTEBLANCHE-27-TTUB
Analysis
This contract estimates the likelihood that Senator John Fetterman (D-PA) votes affirmatively for Todd Blanche in a Senate vote. The 50% probability reflects significant uncertainty about Fetterman's position on this matter. Fetterman's vote would likely depend on the specific context of the Blanche nomination or proposal, his alignment with Democratic leadership on the issue, and his constituent preferences in Pennsylvania. The contract would resolve when a relevant Senate vote occurs, or when Fetterman's position becomes publicly confirmed through official statements or voting records. Related contracts show wide variation in predicted support across Republican senators (ranging from 46% for Rand Paul to 69% for Tommy Tuberville), while Fetterman's contract trades far lower at 3 cents, suggesting market skepticism about Democratic support overall. The resolution depends on whether and when such a vote is scheduled in the Senate.
- ›Fetterman's previous voting record and public statements on similar nominees or policy areas
- ›The nature of the Blanche nomination, vote, or proposal and its alignment with Democratic Party positions
- ›Democratic leadership signaling or whip activity indicating party-line voting expectations
- ›The timing and scheduling of any Senate vote that would trigger contract resolution
- ›Fetterman's stated priorities and constituent feedback in Pennsylvania regarding the specific matter at hand
What moved the line
- Jun 25Tommy Tuberville↑45pp30→75¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25John Cornyn↑34pp35→69¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18John Cornyn↓32pp37→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Susan Collins↓27pp29→2¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Bill Cassidy↓25pp56→31¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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