Will Adriana Lima be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 67% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
67%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5
20 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
129 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Barbie Ferreira be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026
Cluster 2
Will Irina Shayk be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026
Cluster 3
Will Barbara Palvin be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026
Cluster 4
Will Adriana Lima be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026
Cluster 5
Will Alex Consani be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026
Cluster 6
Will Alessandra Ambrosio be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026
Cluster 7
Will Angel Reese be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026
Will Angel Reese be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Angel Reese
KXVSANGLES-26DEC31-ANG
Cluster 8
Will Anok Yai be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026
Will Anok Yai be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Anok Yai
KXVSANGLES-26DEC31-ANO
Cluster 9
Will Ashley Graham be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026
Cluster 10
Will Behati Prinsloo be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026
Cluster 11
Will Bella Hadid be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026
Will Bella Hadid be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Bella Hadid
KXVSANGLES-26DEC31-BEL
Cluster 12
Will Candice Swanepoel be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026
Cluster 13
Will Daiane Sodre be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026
Cluster 14
Will Doutzen Kroes be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026
Cluster 15
Will Emily Ratajkowski be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026
Cluster 16
Will Gigi Hadid be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026
Will Gigi Hadid be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Gigi Hadid
KXVSANGLES-26DEC31-GIG
Cluster 17
Will Gisele Bundchen be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026
Cluster 18
will heidi klum be at victoria's secret fashion show 2026
Will Heidi Klum be at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Heidi Klum
KXVSANGLES-26DEC31-HEI
Cluster 19
Will Imaan Hammam be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026
Cluster 20
Will Iris Law be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026
Will Iris Law be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Iris Law
KXVSANGLES-26DEC31-IRI
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment of whether Adriana Lima will walk in the Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026. At 63%, the market indicates moderately high confidence she'll participate, though with meaningful uncertainty. Lima's status as a veteran VS Angel and her continued modeling presence support this level, but recent VS casting decisions and the show's timing remain unresolved. The key catalyst is Victoria's Secret's official lineup announcement, expected before the show later in 2026. This will definitively settle the question. The 63% assessment reflects that while Lima remains a recognizable face for the brand, younger and more recently promoted models like Bella Hadid (80%) and Candice Swanepoel (82%) show slightly higher implied probability, suggesting some market uncertainty about whether VS favors legacy talent or emerging faces for this year's show.
- ›Adriana Lima's recent modeling activity and contract status with Victoria's Secret as of mid-2026
- ›Comparison to market pricing of other veteran models (Candice Swanepoel at 82%) versus newer talent (Bella Hadid at 80%), indicating relative perceived probability
- ›Historical precedent: whether Lima participated in recent VS Fashion Shows (2023-2025) or has been in lower-priority campaigns
- ›The stated or reported size of the 2026 VS Fashion Show lineup and any official comments from VS about casting direction
- ›Timing of official lineup announcement by Victoria's Secret, which remains the only definitive resolution trigger
What moved the line
- Aug 17Gisele Bundchen↓28pp52→24¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Doutzen Kroes↑24pp48→72¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Alessandra Ambrosio↑20pp56→76¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Doutzen Kroes↑18pp58→76¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Gisele Bundchen↑17pp24→41¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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