Will privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in 2026 be above 1,900 units
Leader sits at 92% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 79%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 1,600 units
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
79¢
Above 1,700 units
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
May 3, 2027
249 days
Venue
Kalshi
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in 2026 be above
Will privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in 2026 be above 2,300 units?: Above 2,300 units
KXVTPERMITS-27MAY03-T2300
Will privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in 2026 be above 1,600 units?: Above 1,600 units
KXVTPERMITS-27MAY03-T1600
Will privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in 2026 be above 2,600 units?: Above 2,600 units
KXVTPERMITS-27MAY03-T2600
Will privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in 2026 be above 2,000 units?: Above 2,000 units
KXVTPERMITS-27MAY03-T2000
Will privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in 2026 be above 2,500 units?: Above 2,500 units
KXVTPERMITS-27MAY03-T2500
Will privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in 2026 be above 2,400 units?: Above 2,400 units
KXVTPERMITS-27MAY03-T2400
Will privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in 2026 be above 2,200 units?: Above 2,200 units
KXVTPERMITS-27MAY03-T2200
Will privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in 2026 be above 1,900 units?: Above 1,900 units
KXVTPERMITS-27MAY03-T1900
Will privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in 2026 be above 1,800 units?: Above 1,800 units
KXVTPERMITS-27MAY03-T1800
Will privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in 2026 be above 1,700 units?: Above 1,700 units
KXVTPERMITS-27MAY03-T1700
Will privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in 2026 be above 2,100 units?: Above 2,100 units
KXVTPERMITS-27MAY03-T2100
Analysis
This contract estimates a 30% chance that Vermont will authorize over 1,900 privately owned housing units via building permits during 2026. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether new construction will accelerate beyond recent historical levels in the state. Housing permit volumes depend primarily on developer confidence, which is shaped by financing availability, labor costs, and local zoning decisions. The second half of 2026 will provide most data to resolve this question, with the final permit count released early 2027 by the Census Bureau. Current market pricing suggests traders view above-1,900 units as a less likely outcome compared to the 1,600–1,800 unit range.
- ›Vermont's historical permit authorizations averaged 1,200–1,500 units annually from 2015–2023, making the 1,900+ threshold a roughly 25–30% above-trend outcome
- ›Financing conditions and mortgage rates in H2 2026 will influence whether developers submit new projects; rising rates typically reduce permits while declining rates encourage submissions
- ›The Census Bureau's formal release of 2026 permit data occurs in early 2027 and will definitively settle the contract based on building permits issued, not completed units
- ›Vermont's regional housing demand and state/local zoning policy changes between now and year-end 2026 directly determine developer feasibility and submission likelihood
- ›Market liquidity is concentrated in the 2,000+ unit and 1,600+ unit thresholds, with minimal trading in the 1,800–1,900 band, suggesting less certainty about that specific range
What moved the line
- Aug 24Above 1,600 units↑32pp45→77¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Above 1,700 units↑25pp47→72¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23Above 2,100 units↑21pp14→35¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23Above 1,800 units↑21pp24→45¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Above 1,800 units↑21pp45→66¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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