Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 81,000 jobs
Leader sits at 97% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 95%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 80,000 jobs
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
95¢
Above 81,000 jobs
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$17K
liquid
Closes
Apr 30, 2027
252 days
Venue
Kalshi
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above
Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 86,000 jobs?: Above 86,000 jobs
KXWAAEROEMP-27APR30-T86000
Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 88,000 jobs?: Above 88,000 jobs
KXWAAEROEMP-27APR30-T88000
Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 82,000 jobs?: Above 82,000 jobs
KXWAAEROEMP-27APR30-T82000
Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 89,000 jobs?: Above 89,000 jobs
KXWAAEROEMP-27APR30-T89000
Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 90,000 jobs?: Above 90,000 jobs
KXWAAEROEMP-27APR30-T90000
Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 83,000 jobs?: Above 83,000 jobs
KXWAAEROEMP-27APR30-T83000
Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 87,000 jobs?: Above 87,000 jobs
KXWAAEROEMP-27APR30-T87000
Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 85,000 jobs?: Above 85,000 jobs
KXWAAEROEMP-27APR30-T85000
Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 81,000 jobs?: Above 81,000 jobs
KXWAAEROEMP-27APR30-T81000
Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 84,000 jobs?: Above 84,000 jobs
KXWAAEROEMP-27APR30-T84000
Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 91,000 jobs?: Above 91,000 jobs
KXWAAEROEMP-27APR30-T91000
Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 80,000 jobs?: Above 80,000 jobs
KXWAAEROEMP-27APR30-T80000
Analysis
This market estimates an 85% probability that Washington state's aerospace manufacturing sector will employ at least 81,000 people on an annual-average basis in 2026. The aerospace industry is a significant employment driver in Washington, concentrated around major contractors and suppliers. Current market pricing suggests traders believe employment will likely stay above this threshold, though the declining probabilities for higher employment levels (77% for 82,000+, 52% for 83,000+) indicate meaningful uncertainty about stronger growth. Key drivers include Boeing's production rates, defense spending trajectories, and supply-chain recovery. The market will resolve when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases 2026 annual employment data, typically in early 2027. Regional economic conditions and potential workforce shifts to other sectors represent sources of downside risk.
- ›Boeing's commercial aircraft delivery rates and defense contract volumes directly influence Washington aerospace employment levels
- ›Historical 2025 employment baseline and month-to-month trend data through August 2026 will anchor actual annual average
- ›Supply-chain capacity constraints and labor availability in the aerospace sector could limit hiring above 81,000 despite demand
- ›Federal defense spending decisions and multi-year contract awards announced before year-end 2026 signal future production needs
- ›BLS employment reports released monthly provide early signals; significant deviation from 81,000 range by Q4 2026 would shift resolution odds
What moved the line
- Aug 19Above 84,000 jobs↑20pp27→47¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 84,000 jobs↑19pp47→66¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Above 83,000 jobs↑15pp52→67¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 83,000 jobs↑14pp67→81¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Above 82,000 jobs↑10pp77→87¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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