Washington Spirit vs. Kansas City Current
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
24%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$11K
7 contracts
Closes
Feb 13, 2029
920 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 30% of their title tokens — “Will Kansas City win” vs “Will Patrick Mahomes be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Kansas City win
Will Kansas City win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Kansas City
KXSB-27-KC
Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: Kansas City
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-KC
Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC West Division?: Kansas City
KXNFLAFCWEST-27-KC
Will Kansas City win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
KXMLBWINS-KC-26-T75
Cluster 2
Will Patrick Mahomes be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1
Cluster 3
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Kansas City
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-KC
Cluster 4
Will Justin Fields be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1
Analysis
This 19% probability reflects the aggregated market estimate that Kansas City will win the 2027 Pro Football Championship. The significant 16-percentage-point gap between Kalshi (21%) and Polymarket (5%) suggests disagreement on Kansas City's title prospects, with higher volume on Kalshi contracts indicating more active pricing on that venue. Kansas City's probability would rise if the team makes major offseason acquisitions or if key players like Tyreek Hill remain committed long-term; it would fall if injuries mount or the roster undergoes significant turnover. The 2027 season start in September 2027 serves as the resolution date, though offseason trades and free agency decisions over the coming months will materially shift expectations. Current market activity shows moderate volume, with the championship contract (6¢) and Tyreek Hill contract (43¢) driving most trading.
- ›Kansas City's current roster health and composition heading into the 2027 offseason, particularly retention of star players versus free-agent departures
- ›Completion of 2027 offseason acquisitions and draft picks, which will determine competitive roster strength relative to division rivals
- ›Volume and pricing divergence between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests incomplete market convergence; monitoring whether this gap widens or narrows over time
- ›Historical win rate for teams with similar preseason odds in the prior three seasons, to contextualize whether 19-21% aligns with typical championship favorite positioning
- ›Injury or suspension developments among key roster contributors that would directly affect on-field performance expectations
What moved the line
- Aug 4Patrick Mahomes↑7pp82→89¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Kansas City↓4pp17→13¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 9Patrick Mahomes↑3pp85→88¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Kansas City↑3pp15→18¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 375+ wins↓3pp8→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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