Washington Spirit vs. Kansas City Current - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
24%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$11K
7 contracts
Closes
Feb 13, 2029
920 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 30% of their title tokens — “Will Kansas City win” vs “Will Patrick Mahomes be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Kansas City win
Will Kansas City win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Kansas City
KXSB-27-KC
Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: Kansas City
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-KC
Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC West Division?: Kansas City
KXNFLAFCWEST-27-KC
Will Kansas City win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
KXMLBWINS-KC-26-T75
Cluster 2
Will Patrick Mahomes be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1
Cluster 3
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Kansas City
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-KC
Cluster 4
Will Justin Fields be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1
Analysis
This 26% probability reflects the expected likelihood that Washington Spirit will defeat Kansas City Current in an upcoming match. The significant 22-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests disagreement about team strength or match conditions. The probability would likely move higher if Washington shows strong recent form or Kansas City reports key injuries, while Kansas City's track record as a historically stronger NWSL team could push it lower. The match itself serves as the primary resolution event, with current team standings, recent head-to-head history, and player availability in the days leading up to kickoff as the main factors traders will monitor.
- ›Kansas City Current has won the NWSL Championship twice (2021, 2023) while Washington Spirit has not, suggesting different historical competitive levels
- ›Recent NWSL standings and points differential between the teams would indicate current form and relative strength entering this match
- ›The 22-percentage-point pricing gap between venues suggests either data arbitrage opportunity or different trader risk assessments that should converge by match date
- ›Injury reports for key players on both rosters, particularly offensive or defensive lynchpins, would materially affect win probability in the 48 hours before kickoff
- ›Home-field advantage (if applicable) and weather conditions on match day could shift expected outcomes, particularly for a lower-probability underdog scenario
What moved the line
- Aug 4Patrick Mahomes↑7pp82→89¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Kansas City↓4pp17→13¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 375+ wins↓3pp8→5¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 475+ wins↓3pp5→2¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will Ralph Norman announce a run for the Class 2 United States Senate seat from South Carolina in 2026last 4% · 0d
- Will there be at least 3 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Jul 19, 2026last 46% · 2d
- Who will win the WA-4 primarylast 3% · 3d
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee reports Todd Blanche's nomination to be U.S. Attorney General to the full Senate before Aug 1, 2026last 97% · 4d
- Will Mallory McMorrow endorse Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Senate race before Aug 4, 2026last 89% · 6d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.