Will Tie be the result of the 2nd Half

30-day trend

Analysis

This market tracks the likelihood that the second half of a match ends in a tie. At 30%, the probability reflects moderate expectations for a tied outcome, suggesting ties are considered possible but not the most likely result. The current level appears driven by the specific teams involved and their historical tendency to draw in similar competitions. The match resolution itself will determine the outcome definitively—ties occur at a measurable rate in football competitions, typically ranging from 20-35% depending on the teams and match context. Key factors include team offensive capabilities, defensive stability, and whether the teams prioritize attacking or defensive tactics in the second half. The match will settle this prediction on its scheduled completion date.

• ›Historical draw rate between these specific teams in head-to-head or recent matchups
• ›Offensive and defensive strength of competing teams, which influences likelihood of scoring stalemate
• ›Team motivation and tactical approach (aggressive attacking vs. defensive positioning)
• ›Current market pricing at 17¢ per contract indicates low trading volume, suggesting limited consensus on true probability
• ›Comparison to win probabilities for individual teams (Iraq at 8¢, Germany at 46¢) shows draws weighted between top contenders

What moved the line

• Jul 8Spain wins 2nd Half↑4pp45→49¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 8Belgium wins 2nd Half↑4pp14→18¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 7Norway wins 2nd Half↑3pp20→23¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds