Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ assists
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 13 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
16%
13 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
13 contracts
Closes
Jul 7, 2026
16 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 13 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Michael Olise” vs “Lionel Messi: 1+ assists”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Michael Olise
Cluster 2
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists?: Lionel Messi: 1+
KXWCAST-26JUN22ARGAUT-ARGLMESSI10-1
Cluster 3
Ousmane Dembele: 1+ assists
Ousmane Dembele: 1+ assists?: Ousmane Dembele: 1+
KXWCAST-26JUN22FRAIRQ-FRAODEMBE10-1
Cluster 4
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assists
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assists?: Alexis Mac Allister: 1+
KXWCAST-26JUN22ARGAUT-ARGAMACA10-1
Cluster 5
Martin Odegaard: 1+ assists
Martin Odegaard: 1+ assists?: Martin Odegaard: 1+
KXWCAST-26JUN22NORSEN-NORMODEGA8-1
Cluster 6
Lautaro Martinez: 1+ assists
Lautaro Martinez: 1+ assists?: Lautaro Martinez: 1+
KXWCAST-26JUN22ARGAUT-ARGLMARTI10-1
Cluster 7
Enzo Fernandez: 1+ assists
Enzo Fernandez: 1+ assists?: Enzo Fernandez: 1+
KXWCAST-26JUN22ARGAUT-ARGEFERNA8-1
Cluster 8
Kylian Mbappe: 1+ assists
Kylian Mbappe: 1+ assists?: Kylian Mbappe: 1+
KXWCAST-26JUN22FRAIRQ-FRAKMBAPP10-1
Cluster 9
Julian Alvarez: 1+ assists
Julian Alvarez: 1+ assists?: Julian Alvarez: 1+
KXWCAST-26JUN22ARGAUT-ARGJALVAR19-1
Cluster 10
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ assists
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ assists?: Marcel Sabitzer: 1+
KXWCAST-26JUN22ARGAUT-AUTMSABIT20-1
Cluster 11
Desire Doue: 1+ assists
Desire Doue: 1+ assists?: Desire Doue: 1+
KXWCAST-26JUN22FRAIRQ-FRADDOUE14-1
Cluster 12
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ assists
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ assists?: Riyad Mahrez: 1+
KXWCAST-26JUN22JORDZA-DZARMAHRE7-1
Analysis
This reflects a market-implied 11% chance that Ayoub El Kaabi records at least one assist in an upcoming match or period. El Kaabi's assist probability is notably lower than comparable attacking midfielders and wingers in the contracts shown—Raphinha trades at 18%, Vinicius Junior at 13%, and Akram Afif at 11%. The gap suggests markets may be pricing in either reduced playing time, a deeper bench role, or fewer attacking opportunities compared to peers. Resolution depends on official match statistics and the specific timeframe of the event. Volume remains modest at $50 in 24-hour trading, indicating limited liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads. Shifts in this probability would likely reflect lineup changes, fixture difficulty adjustments, or team tactical announcements closer to the event date.
- ›El Kaabi's recent playing time and minutes allocation relative to competing attacking players on his team
- ›Comparative assist rates of similar-positioned players in recent matches to establish baseline performance expectations
- ›The specific opponent's defensive profile and how it typically defends against through balls or cutback plays
- ›Whether El Kaabi has been deployed primarily as a scorer versus a playmaker in recent tactical setups
- ›Official team news regarding injuries, suspensions, or tactical changes that could affect his role or field position
What moved the line
- Jun 211+ assists?: Ousmane Dembele: 1+↑12pp5→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 211+ assists?: Lionel Messi: 1+↑11pp8→19¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 211+ assists?: Julian Alvarez: 1+↑8pp3→11¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 211+ assists?: Michael Olise: 1+↑7pp26→33¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 211+ assists?: Kylian Mbappe: 1+↑7pp5→12¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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