11+ corners
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 46% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
46%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$29K
20 contracts
Closes
Jul 10, 2026
16 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
13 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
11+ corners
Cluster 2
10+ corners
Cluster 3
12+ corners
Cluster 4
8+ corners
8+ corners?: 8+ corners
KXWCCORNERS-26JUN25ECUGER-8
Cluster 5
7+ corners
7+ corners?: 7+ corners
KXWCCORNERS-26JUN24CZEMEX-7
Cluster 6
9+ corners
9+ corners?: 9+ corners
KXWCCORNERS-26JUN24CZEMEX-9
Cluster 7
9+ corners
9+ corners?: 9+ corners
KXWCCORNERS-26JUN24RSAKOR-9
Cluster 8
7+ corners
7+ corners?: 7+ corners
KXWCCORNERS-26JUN24RSAKOR-7
Cluster 9
8+ corners
8+ corners?: 8+ corners
KXWCCORNERS-26JUN24CZEMEX-8
Cluster 10
8+ corners
8+ corners?: 8+ corners
KXWCCORNERS-26JUN24RSAKOR-8
Cluster 11
9+ corners
9+ corners?: 9+ corners
KXWCCORNERS-26JUN25PARAUS-9
Cluster 12
9+ corners
9+ corners?: 9+ corners
KXWCCORNERS-26JUN25TURUSA-9
Cluster 13
8+ corners
8+ corners?: 8+ corners
KXWCCORNERS-26JUN25TURUSA-8
Analysis
This represents a 47% probability that a specific event will produce 11 or more corners, based on aggregated market pricing. The current level reflects the midpoint between pessimism and optimism about the frequency of this occurrence. Key factors driving the probability include historical baseline rates for similar events and any recent changes in circumstances that would increase or decrease the likelihood of reaching the 11-corner threshold. The probability appears moderately calibrated given the related contracts showing 73% confidence in 7+ corners and 50% confidence in 9+ corners, suggesting markets see diminishing likelihood as the threshold rises. Resolution will depend on actual data collection when the event occurs, at which point the outcome becomes verifiable and contracts settle accordingly.
- ›Historical average corner frequency for comparable events determines the baseline expectation
- ›Current market shows 73% probability for 7+ corners versus 47% for 11+, indicating steep dropoff at higher thresholds
- ›The contract pricing structure (27¢ for 11+, 50¢ for 9+, 61¢ for 8+) reflects consistent probabilistic ordering
- ›Market liquidity is minimal ($0 trading volume), suggesting limited information flow and price discovery
- ›Actual outcome becomes deterministic at contract settlement when corner count is finalized
What moved the line
- Jun 2211+ corners↑6pp24→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 228+ corners↑5pp60→65¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2211+ corners↑5pp17→22¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2311+ corners↓5pp22→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2210+ corners↑4pp38→42¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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