Scotland vs Morocco Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$464K
6 contracts
Closes
Jul 29, 2026
16 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “France vs Spain Winner” vs “England vs Argentina Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
France vs Spain Winner
Cluster 2
England vs Argentina Winner
Analysis
This 33% probability reflects the market's assessment of Scotland's chances of winning their upcoming match against Morocco in regular time. The current level appears driven by Scotland's standing as a stronger-rated team historically, though Morocco has proven competitive in recent tournaments. Key factors affecting this probability include team form leading into the match, recent head-to-head records, and player availability. The resolution will come when the match concludes, with the probability moving based on betting activity and updated expectations as the fixture date approaches. Market confidence levels remain moderate given the competitive nature of international football.
- ›Scotland's higher FIFA ranking and stronger recent tournament performances compared to Morocco
- ›Morocco's demonstrated ability to compete against higher-seeded teams in recent international competitions
- ›Player injury status and squad rotation decisions by both managers in the days before the match
- ›Betting volume concentration: France vs Morocco contracts show significantly higher activity ($40k+ combined 24h volume) than implied by this match's probability level
- ›The match outcome will be determined by regulation time winner only, excluding extra time or penalty shootout scenarios
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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