Scotland vs Morocco Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
37%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$8K
19 contracts
Closes
Jul 10, 2026
63 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Brazil vs Haiti Winner” vs “USA vs Paraguay Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Brazil vs Haiti Winner
Cluster 2
USA vs Paraguay Winner
Cluster 3
Spain vs Saudi Arabia Winner
Cluster 4
Mexico vs South Africa Winner
Cluster 5
Mexico vs Korea Republic Winner
Mexico vs Korea Republic Winner?: Korea Republic
KXWCGAME-26JUN18MEXKOR-KOR
Cluster 6
Haiti vs Scotland Winner
Haiti vs Scotland Winner?: Tie
KXWCGAME-26JUN13HTISCO-TIE
Cluster 7
Germany vs Curacao Winner
Germany vs Curacao Winner?: Germany
KXWCGAME-26JUN14GERCUW-GER
Cluster 8
IR Iran vs New Zealand Winner
IR Iran vs New Zealand Winner?: New Zealand
KXWCGAME-26JUN15IRINZL-NZL
Cluster 9
England vs Croatia Winner
England vs Croatia Winner?: England
KXWCGAME-26JUN17ENGCRO-ENG
Cluster 10
Argentina vs Algeria Winner
Argentina vs Algeria Winner?: Argentina
KXWCGAME-26JUN16ARGDZA-ARG
Cluster 11
England vs Ghana Winner
England vs Ghana Winner?: England
KXWCGAME-26JUN23ENGGHA-ENG
Cluster 12
Spain vs Cape Verde Winner
Spain vs Cape Verde Winner?: Tie
KXWCGAME-26JUN15ESPCPV-TIE
Cluster 13
Croatia vs Ghana Winner
Croatia vs Ghana Winner?: Croatia
KXWCGAME-26JUN27CROGHA-CRO
Cluster 14
Brazil vs Morocco Winner
Brazil vs Morocco Winner?: Morocco
KXWCGAME-26JUN13BRAMAR-MAR
Analysis
This 27% probability reflects the market's assessment that Scotland will win their direct matchup against Morocco in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The current pricing suggests Morocco enters as favorites, consistent with their higher ranking and recent tournament performances. The probability is anchored by contract activity across multiple venues, with related markets showing Morocco at 16-18 cents in broader group scenarios. The main drivers of this probability are the teams' relative strength, head-to-head history, and their performance trajectories leading into the tournament. The fixture itself will resolve all uncertainty around this specific matchup outcome once the game is played during the group stage in June 2026.
- ›Scotland's FIFA ranking and recent competitive record compared to Morocco's prior to the tournament
- ›Morocco's performance in recent international competitions versus Scotland's qualification campaign and form
- ›Historical head-to-head results between the two teams and tactical matchups
- ›Related market pricing showing Morocco favored in group scenarios (16-18 cents) versus Scotland (5 cents), indicating consistency in probability assessments
- ›The 27% probability implies roughly 73% implied probability for Morocco to win this specific fixture
What moved the line
- May 6Korea Republic↓10pp31→21¢ · Kalshi
- May 7New Zealand↑6pp17→23¢ · Kalshi
- May 6South Africa↓5pp14→9¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Tie↓4pp17→13¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Tie↓3pp23→20¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.