Will Group H score the most goals in the Group Stage
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
20%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
10 contracts
Closes
Jul 3, 2026
8 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Group F score
Cluster 2
Will Group E score
Cluster 3
Will Group A score the fewest goals in the Group Stage
Will Group A score the fewest goals in the Group Stage?: Group A
KXWCGROUPGOALS-26FEWEST-A
Cluster 4
Will Group L score the fewest goals in the Group Stage
Will Group L score the fewest goals in the Group Stage?: Group L
KXWCGROUPGOALS-26FEWEST-L
Cluster 5
Will Group I score the most goals in the Group Stage
Will Group I score the most goals in the Group Stage?: Group I
KXWCGROUPGOALS-26MOST-I
Cluster 6
Will Group D score the fewest goals in the Group Stage
Will Group D score the fewest goals in the Group Stage?: Group D
KXWCGROUPGOALS-26FEWEST-D
Cluster 7
Will Group G score the fewest goals in the Group Stage
Will Group G score the fewest goals in the Group Stage?: Group G
KXWCGROUPGOALS-26FEWEST-G
Cluster 8
Will Group H score the fewest goals in the Group Stage
Will Group H score the fewest goals in the Group Stage?: Group H
KXWCGROUPGOALS-26FEWEST-H
Analysis
This market asks whether Group H will accumulate the most goals across all eight groups during the tournament's group stage. At 6% probability, Group H is considered a significant underdog for this outcome. The low probability reflects that multiple other groups are historically more likely to generate high-scoring matches. The main factors influencing this estimate are the attacking quality of teams assigned to Group H, their defensive vulnerabilities, and the scheduling of their matches. The group stage concludes when all teams complete their final matches, at which point the total goal count for each group becomes fixed and the market resolves. Movement in this probability would depend on team lineups being confirmed and expert assessments of each group's competitive balance and expected goal production.
- ›Team composition of Group H relative to other groups' attacking capabilities and defensive weaknesses
- ›Historical scoring patterns in similar tournament structures and whether this edition follows typical distributions
- ›Strength of schedule considerations—matchday sequencing and whether trailing teams need goals in later matches
- ›Comparison to other groups' probabilities, particularly Group E (11%) which currently has the highest market probability
- ›Tournament-specific variables like weather conditions, venue factors, or rule changes affecting goal-scoring pace
What moved the line
- Jun 25Group A↑34pp7→41¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Group F↑34pp33→67¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Group F↑24pp16→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Group F↑22pp11→33¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Group E↓17pp22→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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