Will a team from Group I win the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Leader sits at 18% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Group I
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
13¢
Group J
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$24K
liquid
Closes
Aug 3, 2026
39 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will a team from Group
Will a team from Group K win the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group K
KXWCGROUPWINNER-26-K
Will a team from Group C win the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group C
KXWCGROUPWINNER-26-C
Will a team from Group E win the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group E
KXWCGROUPWINNER-26-E
Will a team from Group F win the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group F
KXWCGROUPWINNER-26-F
Will a team from Group J win the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group J
KXWCGROUPWINNER-26-J
Will a team from Group L win the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group L
KXWCGROUPWINNER-26-L
Will a team from Group H win the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group H
KXWCGROUPWINNER-26-H
Will a team from Group I win the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group I
KXWCGROUPWINNER-26-I
Will a team from Group D win the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group D
KXWCGROUPWINNER-26-D
Analysis
This probability reflects the current market expectation that a team from Group I of the 2026 FIFA World Cup will ultimately win the tournament. Group I contains teams selected through the qualification process, and at 9%, this group is priced as the most likely to produce a champion among all World Cup groups. The probability is influenced by the perceived strength and depth of Group I's teams relative to other groups. The main uncertainty driver is how accurately current team rankings and form capture actual tournament performance, which depends heavily on injuries, coaching decisions, and match-day execution. The probability will begin to resolve definitively once the tournament begins in June 2026, with early matches providing information about Group I's competitive standing compared to other groups.
- ›Group I's tournament probability (9%) exceeds most other groups but remains under 10%, indicating distributed expectations across all groups
- ›Group H ranks second-highest at 7%, suggesting market participants view strengths as relatively dispersed rather than concentrated in a single group
- ›The 2026 World Cup begins in approximately six weeks, with Group I matches occurring in the initial round likely to sharply reduce uncertainty about this outcome
- ›Team composition and form during the final pre-tournament period will significantly affect bets, particularly for any Group I teams in major European or South American competitions
- ›Historical World Cup winners have come from varied group positions, suggesting group assignment alone is not strongly predictive without accounting for specific team quality
What moved the line
- Jun 19Group L↓6pp13→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Group H↓5pp12→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Group J↑4pp7→11¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Group H↑4pp7→11¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Group I↑4pp17→21¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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