Will Argentina win all 3 of their matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
50%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$56K
6 contracts
Closes
Jul 5, 2026
10 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will USA win all 3 of their matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will USA win all 3 of their matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: USA
KXWCGSUNDEFEATED-26-USA
Cluster 2
Will Germany win all 3 of their matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 3
Will Argentina win all 3 of their matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 4
Will France win all 3 of their matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 5
Will Norway win all 3 of their matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 6
Will Colombia win all 3 of their matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Analysis
This probability represents the chance Argentina wins all three of their group-stage matches at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, currently estimated at 20% by contract traders. Argentina's 20% odds sit between strong favorites like Belgium (32%) and weaker teams, suggesting traders view them as competitive but unlikely to sweep their group without a loss. The main drivers of this probability are Argentina's actual squad strength relative to their group opponents and the inherent difficulty of going undefeated in any three-match tournament round. Argentina's group assignment and the quality of teams they face will be the key determining factors—a group with lower-ranked opponents increases their chances, while placement alongside stronger teams reduces them. The 2026 World Cup group stage begins in June, which will resolve this uncertainty once matches are played.
- ›Argentina's opponent quality in their assigned group, as facing lower-ranked teams significantly increases undefeated probability
- ›Argentina's current roster depth and injury status closer to June 2026, particularly among key players
- ›Historical performance data showing what percentage of strong national teams win all three group matches
- ›Comparative odds across similar nations show Belgium at 32% and Mexico at 16%, suggesting market perception of Argentina's competitiveness
- ›Argentina's qualification record and recent tournament performance as indicators of their consistency and form
What moved the line
- Jun 21Germany↑21pp33→54¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Argentina↑20pp63→83¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20USA↑18pp32→50¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Germany↓17pp36→19¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19France↓16pp43→27¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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