SimpleFunctions
20 source contracts·Kalshi 20·refreshed just now·Closes Jul 12, 2026 · 16d

Brazil: 6+ corners

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 20 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

31%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

31%

20 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$11K

20 contracts

Closes

Jul 12, 2026

16 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 34% (2 days, 2 points)Aggregate: 34% on 2026-06-25
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 2d

Bracket families

20 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Uruguay: 6+ corners: Uruguay: 6+” vs “Norway: 6+ corners: Norway: 6+”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Uruguay: 6+ corners: Uruguay: 6+

1 contract$3K

Cluster 2

Norway: 6+ corners: Norway: 6+

1 contract$1K

Cluster 3

Cape Verde: 5+ corners: Cape Verde: 5+

1 contract$1K

Cluster 4

Iraq: 6+ corners: Iraq: 6+

1 contract$864

Cluster 5

Argentina: 6+ corners: Argentina: 6+

1 contract$788

Cluster 6

Norway: 4+ corners: Norway: 4+

1 contract$748

Cluster 7

France: 8+ corners: France: 8+

1 contract$529

Cluster 8

France: 6+ corners: France: 6+

1 contract$511

Cluster 9

England: 7+ corners: England: 7+

1 contract$453

Cluster 10

Saudi Arabia: 5+ corners: Saudi Arabia: 5+

1 contract$344

Cluster 11

Uruguay: 8+ corners: Uruguay: 8+

1 contract$308

Cluster 12

Senegal: 10+ corners: Senegal: 10+

1 contract$248

Cluster 13

Spain: 6+ corners: Spain: 6+

1 contract$236

Cluster 14

Portugal: 5+ corners: Portugal: 5+

1 contract$214

Cluster 15

Uruguay: 4+ corners: Uruguay: 4+

1 contract$190

Cluster 16

Senegal: 6+ corners: Senegal: 6+

1 contract$168

Cluster 17

Spain: 10+ corners: Spain: 10+

1 contract$164

Cluster 18

Iraq: 8+ corners: Iraq: 8+

1 contract$163

Cluster 19

Colombia: 4+ corners: Colombia: 4+

1 contract$129

Cluster 20

Panama: 7+ corners: Panama: 7+

1 contract$93

Analysis

This market estimates a 45% chance that Brazil will be awarded 6 or more corner kicks in an upcoming match. Corner frequency depends primarily on match dynamics—team possession patterns, defensive tactics, and attacking positioning—rather than fixed team attributes. The current price reflects baseline expectations for Brazil's typical corner rate, with movement dependent on the specific opponent and match conditions. The resolution will occur when the match concludes and official corner totals are recorded. Key drivers include Brazil's attacking intensity, their opponent's defensive setup, and whether the match remains competitive enough to generate multiple set-piece opportunities.

  • Brazil's historical corner average per match compared to their typical opponents
  • The opposing team's defensive style and propensity to concede corners through aggressive attacking play
  • Match weather conditions and field state, which affect ball movement and set-piece frequency
  • The referee's consistency in calling fouls that result in corner awards versus goal kicks
  • Whether Brazil pursues aggressive tactics early or adopts a cautious approach that reduces attacking plays

What moved the line

  • Jun 256+ corners: Argentina: 6+18pp3351¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 256+ corners: Uruguay: 6+3pp1013¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 254+ corners: Norway: 4+3pp5154¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 254+ corners: Uruguay: 4+3pp4548¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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