Brazil: 6+ corners
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$11K
20 contracts
Closes
Jul 12, 2026
16 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Uruguay: 6+ corners: Uruguay: 6+” vs “Norway: 6+ corners: Norway: 6+”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Uruguay: 6+ corners: Uruguay: 6+
Uruguay: 6+ corners: Uruguay: 6+
KXWCTCORNERS-26JUN26URUESP-URU6
Cluster 2
Norway: 6+ corners: Norway: 6+
Norway: 6+ corners: Norway: 6+
KXWCTCORNERS-26JUN26NORFRA-NOR6
Cluster 3
Cape Verde: 5+ corners: Cape Verde: 5+
Cape Verde: 5+ corners: Cape Verde: 5+
KXWCTCORNERS-26JUN26CPVKSA-CPV5
Cluster 4
Iraq: 6+ corners: Iraq: 6+
Iraq: 6+ corners: Iraq: 6+
KXWCTCORNERS-26JUN26SENIRQ-IRQ6
Cluster 5
Argentina: 6+ corners: Argentina: 6+
Argentina: 6+ corners: Argentina: 6+
KXWCTCORNERS-26JUN27JORARG-ARG6
Cluster 6
Norway: 4+ corners: Norway: 4+
Norway: 4+ corners: Norway: 4+
KXWCTCORNERS-26JUN26NORFRA-NOR4
Cluster 7
France: 8+ corners: France: 8+
France: 8+ corners: France: 8+
KXWCTCORNERS-26JUN26NORFRA-FRA8
Cluster 8
France: 6+ corners: France: 6+
France: 6+ corners: France: 6+
KXWCTCORNERS-26JUN26NORFRA-FRA6
Cluster 9
England: 7+ corners: England: 7+
England: 7+ corners: England: 7+
KXWCTCORNERS-26JUN27PANENG-ENG7
Cluster 10
Saudi Arabia: 5+ corners: Saudi Arabia: 5+
Saudi Arabia: 5+ corners: Saudi Arabia: 5+
KXWCTCORNERS-26JUN26CPVKSA-KSA5
Cluster 11
Uruguay: 8+ corners: Uruguay: 8+
Uruguay: 8+ corners: Uruguay: 8+
KXWCTCORNERS-26JUN26URUESP-URU8
Cluster 12
Senegal: 10+ corners: Senegal: 10+
Senegal: 10+ corners: Senegal: 10+
KXWCTCORNERS-26JUN26SENIRQ-SEN10
Cluster 13
Spain: 6+ corners: Spain: 6+
Spain: 6+ corners: Spain: 6+
KXWCTCORNERS-26JUN26URUESP-ESP6
Cluster 14
Portugal: 5+ corners: Portugal: 5+
Portugal: 5+ corners: Portugal: 5+
KXWCTCORNERS-26JUN27COLPOR-POR5
Cluster 15
Uruguay: 4+ corners: Uruguay: 4+
Uruguay: 4+ corners: Uruguay: 4+
KXWCTCORNERS-26JUN26URUESP-URU4
Cluster 16
Senegal: 6+ corners: Senegal: 6+
Senegal: 6+ corners: Senegal: 6+
KXWCTCORNERS-26JUN26SENIRQ-SEN6
Cluster 17
Spain: 10+ corners: Spain: 10+
Spain: 10+ corners: Spain: 10+
KXWCTCORNERS-26JUN26URUESP-ESP10
Cluster 18
Iraq: 8+ corners: Iraq: 8+
Iraq: 8+ corners: Iraq: 8+
KXWCTCORNERS-26JUN26SENIRQ-IRQ8
Cluster 19
Colombia: 4+ corners: Colombia: 4+
Colombia: 4+ corners: Colombia: 4+
KXWCTCORNERS-26JUN27COLPOR-COL4
Cluster 20
Panama: 7+ corners: Panama: 7+
Panama: 7+ corners: Panama: 7+
KXWCTCORNERS-26JUN27PANENG-PAN7
Analysis
This market estimates a 45% chance that Brazil will be awarded 6 or more corner kicks in an upcoming match. Corner frequency depends primarily on match dynamics—team possession patterns, defensive tactics, and attacking positioning—rather than fixed team attributes. The current price reflects baseline expectations for Brazil's typical corner rate, with movement dependent on the specific opponent and match conditions. The resolution will occur when the match concludes and official corner totals are recorded. Key drivers include Brazil's attacking intensity, their opponent's defensive setup, and whether the match remains competitive enough to generate multiple set-piece opportunities.
- ›Brazil's historical corner average per match compared to their typical opponents
- ›The opposing team's defensive style and propensity to concede corners through aggressive attacking play
- ›Match weather conditions and field state, which affect ball movement and set-piece frequency
- ›The referee's consistency in calling fouls that result in corner awards versus goal kicks
- ›Whether Brazil pursues aggressive tactics early or adopts a cautious approach that reduces attacking plays
What moved the line
- Jun 256+ corners: Argentina: 6+↑18pp33→51¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 256+ corners: Uruguay: 6+↑3pp10→13¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 254+ corners: Norway: 4+↑3pp51→54¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 254+ corners: Uruguay: 4+↑3pp45→48¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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