Will Brazil win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$333
11 contracts
Closes
Aug 9, 2027
319 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Brazil win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup
Will Brazil win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup?: Brazil
KXWCW-27-BRA
Cluster 2
Will USA win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup
Will USA win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup?: USA
KXWCW-27-USA
Cluster 3
Will Germany win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup
Will Germany win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup?: Germany
KXWCW-27-GER
Cluster 4
Will Spain win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup
Will Spain win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup?: Spain
KXWCW-27-ESP
Cluster 5
Will France win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup
Will France win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup?: France
KXWCW-27-FRA
Cluster 6
Will Jamaica win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup
Will Jamaica win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup?: Jamaica
KXWCW-27-JAM
Cluster 7
Will Japan win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup
Will Japan win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup?: Japan
KXWCW-27-JPN
Cluster 8
Will Korea Republic win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup
Will Korea Republic win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup?: Korea Republic
KXWCW-27-KOR
Cluster 9
Will Morocco win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup
Will Morocco win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup?: Morocco
KXWCW-27-MAR
Cluster 10
Will New Zealand win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup
Will New Zealand win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup?: New Zealand
KXWCW-27-NZL
Cluster 11
Will Philippines win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup
Will Philippines win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup?: Philippines
KXWCW-27-PHI
Analysis
A 10% probability means prediction markets estimate roughly a 1-in-10 chance Brazil wins the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup. This positions Brazil as a moderate contender, trailing USA (15%) and Spain (16%) but ahead of Germany (4%). Brazil's ranking reflects both historical strength—the nation has won the tournament twice—and recent performance trends in women's football. The tournament occurs in summer 2027, giving time for roster development, coaching changes, and form shifts across all nations. Key drivers of this probability include Brazil's current FIFA ranking in women's football, performance in qualifying matches leading into 2027, and comparison to rival nations' recent trajectories. Major tournaments and qualification results over the next 18 months will likely shift market expectations materially. The CONMEBOL qualifying campaign will be a critical data point for assessing Brazil's competitive position relative to other contenders.
- ›Brazil's current FIFA women's ranking and recent performance in international matches versus competitor nations
- ›Results from CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying matches and regional competitions through 2027
- ›Coaching stability and roster depth at Brazilian FA, including player injuries and retirements
- ›Comparative momentum and investment in women's football programs among top contenders like USA, Spain, and England
- ›Historical tournament performance trends showing whether Brazil maintains or declines relative to rising programs in women's football
What moved the line
- Sep 18USA↓7pp21→14¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 23USA↑4pp14→18¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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