Will Wendy's Company (The) report Above -10% u.s. same-restaurant sales growth in Q2 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

Markets estimate an 89% probability that Wendy's U.S. same-restaurant sales will decline less than 10% in Q2 2026, meaning traders expect sales declines in the single digits or better. This reflects expectations about consumer spending patterns and competitive pressures in quick-service restaurants during spring 2026. The high probability leans heavily on avoiding the worst-case scenario of double-digit declines, though contract prices reveal substantial uncertainty about whether sales actually grow (4% probability) or stay flat (11% probability). Wendy's earnings report—typically released 4-6 weeks after quarter-end in late July or early August—will provide the definitive same-store sales figure. Until then, near-term factors like consumer confidence data, employment reports, and comparable-store sales trends from peer restaurants will influence how traders reassess the probability.

• ›Consumer spending momentum and confidence levels in spring 2026 directly affect quick-service restaurant traffic and ticket sizes
• ›Competitive promotional activity and market share dynamics among major QSR chains influence whether Wendy's sales trend better or worse than category averages
• ›Labor costs and commodity inflation impact pricing decisions, affecting same-store sales performance relative to historical baselines
• ›The market assigns only 11% probability to sales above -2.5%, indicating traders expect moderately negative comps rather than positive growth
• ›Wendy's Q2 2026 earnings release (expected late July or early August 2026) will settle the contract with actual reported same-restaurant sales growth

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