SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 7 outcomes7 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 4 min agoCloses Jan 1, 2027 · 237d

What will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit in April 2026?

Bracket↓ $160

Leader sits at 43% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 38%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

43%

↓ 55,000

runner-up 38¢leader 43¢

Outcomes

7

winner-take-all

Runner-up

38¢

↓ 50,000

Spread

5pp

contested

24h volume

$89K

liquid

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

237 days

Venue

Polymarket

7 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtoday↓ 55,000: 43% (28 days, 28 points)↓ 55,000: 43% on 2026-05-08↓ 50,000: 35% (28 days, 26 points)↓ 50,000: 35% on 2026-05-07↑ 110,000: 31% (28 days, 27 points)↑ 110,000: 31% on 2026-05-07
↓ 55,00043¢↓ 50,00035¢↑ 110,00031¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 28d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

What moved the line

  • May 2↑ 200,0008pp124¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6↓ 55,0006pp4943¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6↑ 110,0006pp2430¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2↓ 50,0004pp4339¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6↓ 50,0004pp3935¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.