What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on April 30?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
2 contracts
Closes
Jul 1, 2028
708 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 5% of their title tokens — “Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2” vs “What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2
Cluster 2
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Virginia
KXREDISTRICTING-26-VIR
Analysis
This prediction asks whether Austin's median home value will exceed $439,000 by April 2027, with current betting odds at 28% likelihood. The relatively low probability suggests market participants expect Austin home values to remain below or near that threshold over the next ten months. Austin's housing market has experienced significant volatility following rapid pandemic-era appreciation. Key factors influencing this outcome include broader economic conditions affecting home prices, Austin's specific supply-demand dynamics, mortgage rate trends, and regional employment conditions. The main resolution point will be Zillow's official home value data for April 2027, though interim housing reports and economic indicators throughout late 2026 and early 2027 will provide signals about the trajectory. Market participants are essentially betting that Austin prices will either stagnate, decline modestly, or grow more slowly than needed to reach this threshold.
- ›Zillow's official median home value index for Austin metro area in April 2027 must exceed $439,000 to resolve affirmatively
- ›Current Austin median home values and their YoY trend from mid-2026 through early 2027 will directly indicate likelihood
- ›Mortgage rate movements and financing availability between now and April 2027 significantly influence buyer demand and price support
- ›Employment growth or contraction in Austin's major sectors (technology, healthcare, energy) affects migration patterns and housing demand
- ›Broader economic indicators including consumer confidence, recession probability, and regional economic growth create tailwinds or headwinds for appreciation
What moved the line
- Jul 20Virginia↑3pp2→5¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (11% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.