What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on April 30?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 54% across 14 contracts. Kalshi at 62%, Polymarket at 26% — a 36pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
62%
11 contracts
Polymarket
26%
3 contracts
Cross-venue gap
36pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$29K
14 contracts
Top contract
48¢
$10K · Polymarket
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 62¢ · Polymarket 26¢ · 36pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (26¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (62¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
7 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot” vs “What price will Ethereum hit in 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot
What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?: Above 3.4%
KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.4
What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?: Above 3.3%
KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.3
What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?: Above 3.2%
KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.2
What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?: Above 3.0%
KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.0
What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?: Above 3.5%
KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.5
Cluster 2
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026
Cluster 3
What will be the series outcome in the Toronto vs Cleveland 1st Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball playoffs
What will be the series outcome in the Toronto vs Cleveland 1st Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball playoffs?: TOR wins 4-3
KXNBASERIESSCORE-26TORCLER1-TOR43
What will be the series outcome in the Toronto vs Cleveland 1st Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball playoffs?: CLE wins 4-3
KXNBASERIESSCORE-26TORCLER1-CLE43
Cluster 4
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Virginia
KXREDISTRICTING-26-VIR
Cluster 5
What will McDonald's Corporation say during their next earnings call
What will McDonald's Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Dividend
KXEARNINGSMENTIONMCD-26MAY07-DIVI
Cluster 6
Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2
Cluster 7
What will Airbnb, Inc. say during their next earnings call
What will Airbnb, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Home Sharing
KXEARNINGSMENTIONABNB-26MAY07-HOME
What moved the line
- May 3CLE wins 4-3↑37pp34→71¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29↑ 5,500↓17pp29→12¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28↑ 5,500↑16pp13→29¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 26CLE wins 4-3↑14pp18→32¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Home Sharing↓13pp61→48¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.