What will the median home value in the US be on April 30?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
2 contracts
Closes
Jul 1, 2028
705 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 5% of their title tokens — “Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2” vs “What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2
Cluster 2
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Virginia
KXREDISTRICTING-26-VIR
Analysis
This contract estimates a 28% probability that US median home values will exceed $441,000 by April 30, 2027. The prediction reflects uncertainty about housing market dynamics over the next ten months. Home prices depend primarily on mortgage rates, inventory levels, and demand patterns. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates significantly or housing supply remains constrained, prices could push higher. Conversely, if unemployment rises sharply or consumer confidence erodes, demand may weaken and prices could stagnate or decline. The most immediate catalyst will be monthly mortgage rate movements and quarterly housing data releases through early 2027, particularly existing home sales figures and new construction starts that signal market direction. Regional variations—especially in the major metros specified in the contract terms—will also influence aggregate median values.
- ›Current US median home price as of June 2026 and historical appreciation rates relative to the $441k threshold
- ›Monthly mortgage rate trends and Federal Reserve policy signals through April 2027
- ›Quarterly housing inventory levels and new home construction starts across major metropolitan areas
- ›Unemployment rate movements and consumer credit conditions that affect buyer demand
- ›Year-over-year home price changes in NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, and Phoenix as specified contract triggers
What moved the line
- Jul 20Virginia↑3pp2→5¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will a budget resolution passed the House before Aug 1, 2026last 90% · 3d
- Will the Democratic National Committee's cash on hand be above 12000000 as of June 30, 2026last 73% · 6d
- Will the number of distinct days with a Getty Images editorial photo of Trump be exactly 7 between Jun 15, 2026 and Jun 21, 2026last 95% · 7d
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.04% on Jul 17, 2026last 96% · 10d
- Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 17, 2026last 96% · 10d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (10% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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