What price will Chainlink hit in 2026?
Leader sits at 56% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 40%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↓ 6
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
40¢
↑ 16
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
197 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What price will Chainlink hit in 2026
What price will Chainlink hit in 2026?: ↑ 18
0x348959…042a
What price will Chainlink hit in 2026?: ↑ 26
0xf33eb2…8ae1
What price will Chainlink hit in 2026?: ↑ 20
0xc07dd4…f013
What price will Chainlink hit in 2026?: ↑ 22
0x9ea7b1…ef39
What price will Chainlink hit in 2026?: ↑ 16
0x935edf…4857
What price will Chainlink hit in 2026?: ↓ 4
0x7180bf…868e
What price will Chainlink hit in 2026?: ↑ 24
0x62e6bf…3c00
What price will Chainlink hit in 2026?: ↓ 6
0x60fe8a…1f28
Analysis
This probability reflects market participants' belief that Chainlink will trade below a specific price threshold by year-end 2026. The current 54% assessment suggests near-parity between bearish and bullish outcomes, though the leading contract shows a modest lean toward downside. Chainlink's price trajectory will likely depend on two main drivers: broader cryptocurrency market conditions (especially Bitcoin and Ethereum movements, which currently show significant downside pricing in competing contracts) and platform-specific adoption metrics. The primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be Chainlink's actual price on December 31, 2026, alongside quarterly developments in oracle infrastructure adoption and competitive dynamics within the decentralized data provider space. Market participants are currently pricing in meaningful downside risk for the year, evident from the volume concentration in lower-price-threshold contracts across major cryptocurrencies.
- ›Bitcoin downside contracts (↓45,000 and ↓40,000) are currently pricing at 27¢ and 21¢ respectively with highest trading volume, suggesting market expectations for crypto-wide weakness that would pressure altcoin valuations
- ›Chainlink's outcome is determined by a single discrete price point on December 31, 2026, making the contract sensitive to year-end volatility and timing of any final trading activity
- ›Ethereum downside pricing (↓1,500 at 47¢) indicates significant systemic cryptocurrency price concerns that would likely correlate with Chainlink performance
- ›The runner-up outcome at 38% probability represents material uncertainty, indicating no consensus view and substantial disagreement about price direction among participants
- ›Current contract pricing reflects roughly 18 months of future uncertainty with no scheduled catalyst events, making the outcome highly dependent on unpredictable macroeconomic and crypto market developments
What moved the line
- Jun 12↓ 6↑12pp45→57¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 16↑ 18↓9pp44→35¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 13↑ 18↓7pp51→44¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15↓ 4↑7pp32→39¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 17↓ 4↓7pp35→28¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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