Will Conservative win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
32%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+12pp
12h ago
24h volume
$11K
3 contracts
Closes
Jul 30, 2027
402 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Green win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election
Will Green win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election?: Green
KXMANCHESTERMAYOR-26JUL30-GRE
Cluster 2
Will Labour win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election
Will Labour win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election?: Labour
KXMANCHESTERMAYOR-26JUL30-LAB
Cluster 3
Will Reform UK win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election
Will Reform UK win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election?: Reform UK
KXMANCHESTERMAYOR-26JUL30-REF
Analysis
This probability represents the estimated chance that the Conservative Party will win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election, currently priced at 20 percent. The market suggests Labour holds a commanding position at 80 percent, while Greens (6 percent) and Reform UK (10 percent) occupy distant second positions. Conservative's low probability reflects both traditional voting patterns in Greater Manchester, where Labour has dominated recent mayoral contests, and the current political environment. The main factors driving this assessment include regional demographic composition, recent polling data for mayoral candidates, and performance in prior local contests. The election itself will occur when the term of the sitting mayor concludes, likely in May 2027, providing the definitive resolution point for this market.
- ›Labour's historical dominance in Greater Manchester mayoral races and the party's current 80-cent contract pricing suggests entrenched incumbent advantage
- ›Conservative candidate selection and campaign strategy remain unannounced; candidate profile and local recognition will materially affect their viability
- ›Recent national polling trends and regional party performance in prior local elections provide evidence for relative competitiveness across parties
- ›Reform UK's surprisingly high 10-cent contract pricing indicates potential vote-splitting that could affect Conservative's ceiling in a multi-way race
- ›The final resolution depends on actual votes cast in the May 2027 election, making all current prices interim estimates subject to campaign developments
What moved the line
- Jun 23Labour↑30pp50→80¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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