Will Conservative Party finish 2nd in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
4%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$188
3 contracts
Closes
Jul 30, 2027
362 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Green Party finish 2nd in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election
Cluster 2
Will Conservative Party finish 2nd in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election
Cluster 3
Will Labour Party finish 2nd in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that the Conservative Party will finish in second place in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election. The 20% probability reflects relatively weak Conservative positioning in Greater Manchester, a region where Labour has held significant electoral advantage in recent years. The metric depends primarily on vote-splitting dynamics among opposition parties and turnout patterns. Reform UK currently shows the highest second-place probability at 56%, while the Green Party is priced at 34%, suggesting market participants expect the second position will be contested among these three parties rather than Conservative candidates. The election outcome will be determined once voting concludes and results are officially announced, at which point the second-place finisher will be definitively established.
- ›Conservative Party's recent performance in Greater Manchester local elections compared to national and regional trends
- ›Vote-splitting patterns among Reform UK, Greens, and Conservative candidates if they campaign simultaneously in the mayoral race
- ›Whether a single opposition candidate emerges as the main challenger or if support fragments across multiple non-Labour candidates
- ›Turnout rates in Greater Manchester during 2026, which historically favor different party bases at different participation levels
- ›Confirmed candidate quality and campaign resources for Conservative, Reform UK, and Green Party candidates competing for the second-place position
What moved the line
- Jul 26Green Party↓8pp11→3¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 31Green Party↑4pp1→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 30Green Party↓3pp4→1¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 28Conservative Party↑3pp1→4¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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