Which company has the best Coding AI model end of April
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 18% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
18%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
7 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
188 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026” vs “Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: OpenAI
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-OPEN
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Google
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-GOOG
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: xAI
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-XAI
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Anthropic
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-ANTH
Cluster 2
Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public
Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Netflix
KXAISTREAMSERIES-27-NET
Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Amazon
KXAISTREAMSERIES-27-AMA
Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Disney
KXAISTREAMSERIES-27-DIS
Analysis
This probability estimates the likelihood that a single company will be recognized as having the best coding-focused AI model by end of April 2026. The 29% aggregate probability reflects significant disagreement between venues: Polymarket traders price this at 37% while Kalshi traders assess it at 20%, suggesting uncertainty about how "best" will be measured and which company will deliver the strongest coding capabilities. Movement in this probability would depend on new model releases, published benchmark results on coding tasks, and how industry evaluators weight different performance metrics like code generation accuracy, execution correctness, and efficiency. The key catalyst is the accumulation of real-world performance data and formal evaluations released in the coming months, which would narrow the gap between optimistic and skeptical assessments of where coding AI leadership stands.
- ›Polymarket prices coding AI leadership 17 percentage points higher than Kalshi, indicating disagreement about evaluation criteria and technical capabilities
- ›Anthropic contracts on Polymarket price its models at 85-91% for general AI leadership by June, suggesting market expectation of strong performance extending to specialized domains like coding
- ›OpenAI contracts trade at only 3% despite historical dominance in AI model releases, indicating market skepticism about its coding capabilities relative to competitors or uncertainty about release timing
- ›The gap between general AI model leadership (Anthropic 85%) and coding-specific leadership (29% aggregated) suggests traders view coding as a more contested or uncertain domain
- ›High 24-hour trading volumes on Anthropic and OpenAI contracts indicate active information discovery, with material probability shifts possible as new benchmarks or model announcements surface
What moved the line
- Jun 23OpenAI↓4pp39→35¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21OpenAI↑3pp33→36¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22OpenAI↑3pp36→39¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25xAI↑3pp5→8¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 26xAI↓3pp8→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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