Which teams will draft a QB in the 1st round of the 2026 Pro Football draft
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
20 contracts
Top contract
4¢
$1K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft” vs “Which EPL teams will qualify for the Champions League”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Drew Mestemaker
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-DMES
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Julian Sayin
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-JSAY
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Jeremiah Smith
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-JSMI
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Arch Manning
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-AMAN
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Dante Moore
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-DMOO
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: LaNorris Sellers
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-LSEL
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: CJ Carr
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-CCAR
Cluster 2
Which EPL teams will qualify for the Champions League
Which EPL teams will qualify for the Champions League?: Man Utd
KXEPLTOP4-26-MUN
Which EPL teams will qualify for the Champions League?: Aston Villa
KXEPLTOP4-26-AVL
Which EPL teams will qualify for the Champions League?: Burnley
KXEPLTOP4-26-BUR
Which EPL teams will qualify for the Champions League?: Fulham
KXEPLTOP4-26-FUL
Which EPL teams will qualify for the Champions League?: Chelsea
KXEPLTOP4-26-CHE
Which EPL teams will qualify for the Champions League?: West Ham
KXEPLTOP4-26-WHU
Which EPL teams will qualify for the Champions League?: Crystal Palace
KXEPLTOP4-26-CRY
Cluster 3
How many international-born players will be drafted in the 1st round
How many international-born players will be drafted in the 1st round?: 4+ international-born players drafted
KXNBADRAFTCAT-26INT-4
How many international-born players will be drafted in the 1st round?: 3+ international-born players drafted
KXNBADRAFTCAT-26INT-3
Cluster 4
Will Arizona make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft
Will Arizona make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Arizona
KXNFLDRAFT1ST-27-ARI
Cluster 5
Will Cleveland make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft
Will Cleveland make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Cleveland
KXNFLDRAFT1ST-27-CLE
Cluster 6
Will Miami make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft
Will Miami make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Miami
KXNFLDRAFT1ST-27-MIA
Cluster 7
Will New York J make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft
Will New York J make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: New York J
KXNFLDRAFT1ST-27-NYJ
What moved the line
- May 3Arch Manning↓14pp28→14¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Arch Manning↑10pp18→28¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 26Arch Manning↑9pp12→21¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 304+ international-born players drafted↑7pp53→60¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Chelsea↑7pp1→8¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.