Which teams will draft a QB in the 1st round of the 2026 Pro Football draft
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
12 contracts
Closes
May 22, 2027
333 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft” vs “How many international-born players will be drafted in the 1st round”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Dante Moore
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-DMOO
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Arch Manning
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-AMAN
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Jeremiah Smith
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-JSMI
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: CJ Carr
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-CCAR
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Julian Sayin
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-JSAY
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Drew Mestemaker
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-DMES
Cluster 2
How many international-born players will be drafted in the 1st round
How many international-born players will be drafted in the 1st round?: 4+ international-born players drafted
KXNBADRAFTCAT-26INT-4
How many international-born players will be drafted in the 1st round?: 3+ international-born players drafted
KXNBADRAFTCAT-26INT-3
Cluster 3
Will Miami make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft
Will Miami make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Miami
KXNFLDRAFT1ST-27-MIA
Cluster 4
Will Arizona make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft
Will Arizona make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Arizona
KXNFLDRAFT1ST-27-ARI
Cluster 5
Will Cleveland make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft
Will Cleveland make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Cleveland
KXNFLDRAFT1ST-27-CLE
Cluster 6
Will New York J make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft
Will New York J make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: New York J
KXNFLDRAFT1ST-27-NYJ
Analysis
This probability reflects the chance that at least two teams will select quarterbacks during the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft. The 21% level suggests the market views a scenario with multiple first-round QB selections as moderately unlikely but plausible. The primary driver is the perceived quality and necessity of QB prospects in the draft class. If several teams with high draft picks determine their current QB situations are untenable, or if the top QB prospects grade exceptionally well, this probability would increase. Conversely, if teams prioritize other positions or trades shift the draft order significantly, it could decrease. The draft itself on April 23, 2026 will definitively resolve this question, making pre-draft team statements and mock drafts the key information points analysts monitor through spring 2026.
- ›The current draft order and which teams hold top-10 picks, particularly those with documented QB concerns or aging QB rosters
- ›How many QB prospects receive first-round grade evaluations from major scouting services heading into the draft
- ›Trade activity during draft week that could alter which teams occupy first-round positions and their strategic priorities
- ›Whether teams with marginal QB situations (injured starters, expiring contracts, or underperforming incumbents) publicly signal QB urgency
- ›Historical precedent: the number of first-round QB selections has ranged from 0-3 in recent years, with most years seeing 1-2 selections
What moved the line
- Jun 20Arizona↑4pp15→19¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Arizona↑4pp19→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 214+ international-born players drafted↑3pp69→72¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Miami↓3pp8→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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