Which teams will draft a QB in the 1st round of the 2026 Pro Football draft

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects the chance that at least two teams will select quarterbacks during the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft. The 21% level suggests the market views a scenario with multiple first-round QB selections as moderately unlikely but plausible. The primary driver is the perceived quality and necessity of QB prospects in the draft class. If several teams with high draft picks determine their current QB situations are untenable, or if the top QB prospects grade exceptionally well, this probability would increase. Conversely, if teams prioritize other positions or trades shift the draft order significantly, it could decrease. The draft itself on April 23, 2026 will definitively resolve this question, making pre-draft team statements and mock drafts the key information points analysts monitor through spring 2026.

• ›The current draft order and which teams hold top-10 picks, particularly those with documented QB concerns or aging QB rosters
• ›How many QB prospects receive first-round grade evaluations from major scouting services heading into the draft
• ›Trade activity during draft week that could alter which teams occupy first-round positions and their strategic priorities
• ›Whether teams with marginal QB situations (injured starters, expiring contracts, or underperforming incumbents) publicly signal QB urgency
• ›Historical precedent: the number of first-round QB selections has ranged from 0-3 in recent years, with most years seeing 1-2 selections

What moved the line

• Jul 31Arch Manning↓9pp37→28¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 28Dante Moore↑4pp14→18¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 29Arizona↑3pp31→34¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 1Jeremiah Smith↓3pp11→8¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 3Dante Moore↑3pp17→20¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds