Will Wisconsin's annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 452,500 jobs

30-day trend

Analysis

This market is assessing whether Wisconsin's manufacturing workforce will average above 455,000 employees in 2026—a threshold that sits between modest growth and relative stability compared to recent years. The 37% probability reflects skepticism about reaching that employment level, suggesting market participants expect either flat or declining manufacturing jobs in the state. Key drivers include Wisconsin's exposure to automotive supply chains and industrial equipment sectors, which are sensitive to national economic growth and consumer demand. The market will resolve once Wisconsin reports its official annual average employment data for 2026, typically released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in early 2027. Current contract pricing shows declining confidence at higher employment thresholds, with only 10% probability assigned to exceeding 460,000 jobs, indicating consensus around a relatively constrained manufacturing employment environment.

• ›Wisconsin's automotive supply chain and equipment manufacturing sectors depend heavily on national vehicle production and capital investment cycles
• ›National manufacturing employment trends and regional economic conditions through late 2026 will significantly influence year-end workforce levels
• ›The official data source is BLS annual average employment figures for Wisconsin's manufacturing sector, reported with a lag in early 2027
• ›Contract pricing shows sharp probability drops at 5,000-job increments (37% at 455k, 25% at 457.5k, 10% at 460k), indicating tight expectations around a narrow range
• ›Recent Wisconsin manufacturing employment trends, supply chain disruptions, and Federal Reserve policy affecting business investment will be critical to final outcome

What moved the line

• Aug 19Above 452,500 jobs↑39pp36→75¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in economy

• What will China GDP growth be in 2026?last 33% · 1d
• What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 18% · 1d
• Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?last 47% · 1d
• Will the South Africa inflation rate MoM for May 2026 be above 1.0%last 68% · 2d
• What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?last 18% · 4d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds