Will LSU win the Women's College Basketball National Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
12 contracts
Closes
May 2, 2027
358 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will UConn win the Women's College Basketball National Championship
Will UConn win the Women's College Basketball National Championship?: UConn
KXWMARMAD-27-CONN
Cluster 2
Will Texas win the Women's College Basketball National Championship
Will Texas win the Women's College Basketball National Championship?: Texas
KXWMARMAD-27-TEX
Cluster 3
Will South Carolina win the Women's College Basketball National Championship
Will South Carolina win the Women's College Basketball National Championship?: South Carolina
KXWMARMAD-27-SCAR
Cluster 4
Will LSU win the Women's College Basketball National Championship
Will LSU win the Women's College Basketball National Championship?: LSU
KXWMARMAD-27-LSU
Cluster 5
Will USC win the Women's College Basketball National Championship
Will USC win the Women's College Basketball National Championship?: USC
KXWMARMAD-27-USC
Cluster 6
Will TCU win the Women's College Basketball National Championship
Will TCU win the Women's College Basketball National Championship?: TCU
KXWMARMAD-27-TCU
Cluster 7
Will Oklahoma win the Women's College Basketball National Championship
Will Oklahoma win the Women's College Basketball National Championship?: Oklahoma
KXWMARMAD-27-OKLA
Cluster 8
Will Louisville win the Women's College Basketball National Championship
Will Louisville win the Women's College Basketball National Championship?: Louisville
KXWMARMAD-27-LOU
Cluster 9
Will Ole Miss win the Women's College Basketball National Championship
Will Ole Miss win the Women's College Basketball National Championship?: Ole Miss
KXWMARMAD-27-MISS
Cluster 10
Will Tennessee win the Women's College Basketball National Championship
Will Tennessee win the Women's College Basketball National Championship?: Tennessee
KXWMARMAD-27-TENN
Cluster 11
Will Nebraska win the Women's College Basketball National Championship
Will Nebraska win the Women's College Basketball National Championship?: Nebraska
KXWMARMAD-27-NEB
Cluster 12
Will Stanford win the Women's College Basketball National Championship
Will Stanford win the Women's College Basketball National Championship?: Stanford
KXWMARMAD-27-STAN
Analysis
This 10% probability reflects the current market estimate that LSU will win the Women's College Basketball National Championship in the 2025-26 season. The valuation likely reflects LSU's roster composition, recent tournament performance history, and strength of conference competition within the SEC. Key catalysts include the team's performance through conference play (January-February 2026) and their seeding in the NCAA Tournament, which will provide clearer evidence of championship viability. The NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament in March 2026 will ultimately resolve this question, with the championship game scheduled for early April 2026. Between now and then, LSU's win-loss record, tournament selection, and matchup strength will be the primary factors markets use to reassess these odds.
- ›LSU's current roster talent level and player development trajectory compared to traditional powerhouses like South Carolina, UConn, and Texas
- ›LSU's historical tournament seeding and performance record (Elite Eight appearances, Final Four accessibility)
- ›The depth and competitiveness of the SEC conference in 2025-26, which affects LSU's tournament path and resume strength
- ›Injury status of key LSU players heading into tournament play
- ›NCAA selection committee's tournament seeding of LSU, which directly influences their path to the championship
What moved the line
- May 6Ole Miss↓30pp35→5¢ · Kalshi
- May 6UConn↑9pp7→16¢ · Kalshi
- May 7UConn↑7pp16→23¢ · Kalshi
- May 7South Carolina↑6pp15→21¢ · Kalshi
- May 6LSU↑6pp4→10¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.