Will Atlanta win the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$8K
7 contracts
Closes
Nov 30, 2028
891 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Atlanta win the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball Championship
Will Atlanta win the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball Championship?: Atlanta
KXWNBA-26-ATL
Cluster 2
Will Indiana win the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball Championship
Will Indiana win the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball Championship?: Indiana
KXWNBA-26-IND
Cluster 3
Will Dallas win the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball Championship
Will Dallas win the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball Championship?: Dallas
KXWNBA-26-DAL
Cluster 4
Will Minnesota win the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball Championship
Will Minnesota win the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball Championship?: Minnesota
KXWNBA-26-MIN
Cluster 5
Will New York win the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball Championship
Will New York win the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball Championship?: New York
KXWNBA-26-NY
Cluster 6
Will Golden State win the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball Championship
Will Golden State win the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball Championship?: Golden State
KXWNBA-26-GS
Cluster 7
Will Las Vegas win the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball Championship
Will Las Vegas win the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball Championship?: Las Vegas
KXWNBA-26-LV
Analysis
This market reflects the probability that the Atlanta Dream will win the WNBA championship in 2026. At 16%, the price suggests Atlanta is considered a competitive but not favored contender relative to other teams. The probability is shaped by the current roster composition, draft position, and team trajectory heading into the season. Key drivers of upward movement would include strong regular-season performance, successful draft acquisitions, or roster additions through trades. The probability could decline if key players underperform, suffer injuries, or if competing teams demonstrate superior strength. The most significant catalyst will be the WNBA regular season performance beginning in 2026, which will clarify whether Atlanta can maintain competitiveness through playoff qualification.
- ›Atlanta's current roster depth and individual player performance relative to other WNBA rosters
- ›Draft capital available to Atlanta and success of recent draft picks in development
- ›Injury status of key players throughout the 2026 regular season and playoffs
- ›Win-loss record and playoff seed positioning achieved by Atlanta through the regular season
- ›Relative strength of competing teams, particularly top contenders with historical championship experience
What moved the line
- Jun 22Minnesota↓8pp35→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Minnesota↑5pp28→33¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Atlanta↓3pp10→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Minnesota↑3pp25→28¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20New York↓3pp22→19¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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