SimpleFunctions
8 source contracts·Kalshi 8·refreshed just now·Closes Dec 15, 2026 · 155d

Will Awa Fam be selected to the Women's Pro Basketball All-Rookie team in the 2026 season

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 8 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

26%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

26%

8 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$10

8 contracts

Closes

Dec 15, 2026

155 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 79% (22 days, 22 points)Aggregate: 79% on 2026-07-11
Aggregate of 8 contracts · 22d

Bracket families

8 clusters across 8 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Kiki Rice be selected to the Women's Pro Basketball All-Rookie team in the 2026 season

1 contract$5

Cluster 2

Will Gabriela Jaquez be selected to the Women's Pro Basketball All-Rookie team in the 2026 season

1 contract$5

Cluster 3

Will Lauren Betts be selected to the Women's Pro Basketball All-Rookie team in the 2026 season

1 contract$0

Cluster 4

Will Awa Fam be selected to the Women's Pro Basketball All-Rookie team in the 2026 season

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will Flau'jae Johnson be selected to the Women's Pro Basketball All-Rookie team in the 2026 season

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will Angela Dugalic be selected to the Women's Pro Basketball All-Rookie team in the 2026 season

1 contract$0

Cluster 7

Will Madina Okot be selected to the Women's Pro Basketball All-Rookie team in the 2026 season

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

Will Jovana Nogic be selected to the Women's Pro Basketball All-Rookie team in the 2026 season

1 contract$0

Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that Awa Fam has a 40% chance of being selected to the WNBA All-Rookie team for the 2026 season. The current level suggests moderate confidence, positioning her behind consensus frontrunners like Azzi Fudd (83%) and Jovana Nogic (63%), but ahead of some peers. Her selection likelihood depends on her actual playing time, statistics, and performance consistency throughout the 2026 WNBA season, compared directly against other first-year players. The All-Rookie team is typically selected at season's end based on voting that weighs rookie performance across the league. Key variables include whether Fam's team provides sufficient opportunity to accumulate stat-relevant minutes, how her individual production metrics compare to other qualifying rookies, and whether voters weight per-minute efficiency versus total impact.

  • Awa Fam's actual minutes played and statistical output during the 2026 WNBA regular season compared to other first-year players
  • Roster depth and playing time availability on her assigned WNBA team, which determines opportunity for stat accumulation
  • Voting patterns from the media and coaches who select All-Rookie honors, which may favor higher-volume scorers or players on visible teams
  • Comparison of her per-game and per-minute performance metrics against other rookies already trading at higher probabilities
  • Whether injuries to competing rookies or unexpected breakout performances materially shift the competitive landscape for All-Rookie selection

What moved the line

  • Jul 10Flau'jae Johnson56pp7216¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 11Awa Fam48pp3179¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 10Awa Fam25pp5631¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 7Flau'jae Johnson23pp4972¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 7Madina Okot7pp18¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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